Working Groups

During the Foresight4Food Montpellier workshop, organised in March 2023, various network members discussed the topic of quantitative and qualitative ‘handshake’ within foresight approaches. In the discussions, a dilemma question was posed: ‘Integrating the worlds of participatory scenario development and quantitative data modelling – are these worlds converging or diverging’? In response to this, a number of observations were made. Some said that this generally seems to be converging but that it is a mixed picture. It was also mentioned that the ‘handshake’ between qualitative and quantitative methods can be improved. There was an awareness that data alone does not change mindsets and that a collaborative multi-stakeholder process is needed to convert evidence to emotion and policy.

The Montpellier group saw that stronger integration of simulation models with participatory processes are needed to enhance foresight contributions to food systems transformation. We see more and more mixed approaches being used already, with both challenges and opportunities arising (as shared by WUR colleagues on the Dhaka Urban Food Agenda). However, there is also the need to understand underlying implications of power, discontinuities and unknowns that arise as a consequence of choices for use of certain mixed methods in foresight (Jahel et al, 2023).

There are a wide range of simulation models developed and used globally. Members within the Foresight4Food community shared that though models have various advantages, it is not always clear what questions they offer the best answers to. For instance, how can stakeholders meaningfully choose the right models depending on the questions, purpose and parameters they are working with? There is a need for overview and supportive criteria to help people to sort through the different simulation models. Foresight4Food Initiative seeks to convene a ‘Working Group’ to further explore and tackle these questions.

The goal of this working group is to bring together a core group experts and practitioners (initially online but potentially also face-to-face) to engage in further unpacking the value of simulation models in food systems (with an initial focus on economic simulation models and related modelling tools with which they work) and how to integrate these better with other (more qualitative) foresight approaches.

As such, the objective of this group is to create anoverview of existing simulation models and their applications in foresight and based on this, and with further consultation, to gather insights on use cases, opportunities, challenges and guidance on how to use them effectively within foresight processes. This framework will be helpful to modelling practitioners to exchange with each other on what is being done, and for stakeholders to understand better how modelling fits within foresight processes.

Ideally, the working group will move in 2 steps. Steps 1 and 2 will be ‘short-term efforts’ (of no more than 6 months each) to develop the working group outputs. F4F will select 2 co-chairs to lead the implementation and plan tasks. The steps are built up as follows:

The following research questions are suggested to be explored by the group:

For implementing these two steps we seek to build on the following contributions:

This group proposes two outputs. The first is an operational inventory database, containing an overview of existing simulation models and their use cases in foresight. The second, based on further consultation, is to develop a briefing paper that gathers insights on opportunities, challenges and guidance on how to use them effectively within foresight processes. The paper would also offer guidance reflections on enhancing the qualitative and quantitative handshake based on this framework. Further outputs may be generated by the working group based on progressive insights and commitments. We will seek to link up with other F4F working groups and stakeholders working on qualitative foresight processes, policy engagement and mixed methods.

Foresight4Food has some (limited) resources available to support working group leads with a number of days to put time into this. Furthermore, F4F will be able to support the organisation of a live workshop in 2024 to finalise the output of this work. F4F research officer, Bhawana Gupta, will be available to support with a few days’ work for scanning and supporting population of the database.

Interested in learning more about this working group? Reach out to Bram Peters, Foresight4Food Global Facilitator (bram.peters@ouce.ox.ac.uk) and Monika Zurek, Senior researcher Food System Transformation Group at Environmental Change Institute (monika.zurek@eci.ox.ac.uk)