Foresight Studies

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The ability of food systems to feed the world’s population will continue to be constrained in the face of global warming and other global challenges. Often missing from the literature on future food security are different scenarios of population growth. Also, most climate models use given population projections and consider neither major increases in mortality nor rapid declines in fertility. In this paper, we present the current global food system challenge and consider both relatively high and relatively low fertility trajectories and their impacts for food policy and systems. Two futures are proposed. The first is a “stormy future” which is an extension of the “business as usual” scenario. The population would be hit hard by conflict, global warming, and/or other calamities and shocks (e.g., potentially another pandemic). These factors would strain food production and wreak havoc on both human and planetary health. Potential increases in mortality (from war, famine, and/or infectious diseases) cannot be easily modeled because the time, location, and magnitude of such events are unknowable, but a challenged future is foreseen for food security. The second trajectory considered is the “brighter future,” in which there would be increased access to education for girls and to reproductive health services and rapid adoption of the small family norm. World average fertility would decline to 1.6 births per woman by 2040, resulting in a population of 8.4 billion in 2075. This would put less pressure on increasing food production and allow greater scope for preservation of natural ecosystems. These two trajectories demonstrate why alternative population growth scenarios need to be investigated when considering future food system transitions. Demographers need to be involved in teams working on projections of climate and food security.

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The global land base is under increasing pressure to provide food for a growing population. This report describes how increasing population, income, and agricultural productivity may affect global production and consumption of crops and food products by 2050. Results show that in an income-driven food demand scenario, production of world crop calories increases by 47 percent from 2011 to 2050. Demand for food calories and crop calories increases over time in all scenarios, with most of the adjustment through increases in crop yield (intensification). The amount of cropland also increases (extensification) but less on a percentage basis

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Abstract Motivation Strategic foresight is gaining traction for anticipating changes in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world?one which will require different mindsets and approaches. Yet international development co-operation practitioners have been slow to adopt foresight. Purpose What promises and pitfalls should development practitioners consider in order to integrate strategic foresight into their work? Methods and approach We review the literature on strategic foresight applied to development. We draw on reflections from the articles included in this special issue. We incorporate the International Development Research Centre's experiences and early insights on the use of foresight for development. Findings Strategic foresight provides tools to anticipate long-term and potentially disruptive change. To apply the approach effectively, organizations need to understand the debates about foresight. But no one size fits all: organizations must identify where and how foresight can best be used; be clear on its purpose, use, and end-users; be sensitive to how foresight intersects with broader calls for decolonizing development and the future; and should adapt methods to different sociocultural contexts. Connecting foresight practitioners and international development actors to explore potential synergies between these two worlds offers opportunities to innovate. Policy implications Traditional, short-term strategic planning, and reactive responses to emerging crises, are increasingly ill-suited to a VUCA world. To be fit for the future, international development actors must consider adding proactive longer-term anticipatory planning?that accommodates more systematic understanding and appreciation of plausible futures?to reactive responses.

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Abstract Motivation Close to a third of the world's population and more than 80% of people living in extreme poverty live in contexts of fragility. With agencies such as the OECD and UNDP conceiving of such places in terms of multiple and serious risks, the framing has come to be one of pathology: fragile contexts are defined by deficits with respect to idealized governance and sustainable development goals. In consequence, development options are locked into managing risks?confining opportunities to develop potential. Purpose Can strategic foresight unlock the development potential of fragile societies? Approach and methods Because there is still little documentation of foresight initiatives in contexts of fragility, the approach here is theoretical and conceptual. We draw on literature from the fields of fragility, foresight, and cognition, as well as insights from expert exchanges and roundtables. Findings It is uncertainty, not risk, that lies at the heart of fragility?an insight that challenges standard decision-making. With the latter being based on analogical reasoning, it cannot be logically applied under conditions of uncertainty. If, instead, we adopt an heuristic for decision-making that acknowledges uncertainty to not only entail risk but also opportunity, strategic foresight is well-placed to help revive development. Policy Implications First, fragility has to be reframed to acknowledge the centrality of uncertainty, not risk, in approaching fragility. Whilst evidence from the past is important, scrutinizing past paradigms and envisioning different futures is crucial. Second, strategic foresight can help uncover fragile societies? capacities and potential. It can help shift from analyses dominated by a concern with lacks and deficits, to analyses which seek relative strengths and opportunities. Just as strong states are not strong in every respect, fragile states may have more to offer than meets the eye. Third, debates need to be more open, less ideologically laden. Dominant thinking on fragility is rife with seemingly imperturbable underpinnings: for example, the mantra that ?without peace there can be no development, and without development there can be no peace.? While such propositions contain some truth, treating them as absolute and universally applicable, limits both thinking and policy options. Strategic foresight is well placed to provide a fresh view on fragility.

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Abstract Motivation Foresight methods are increasingly recognized as essential for decision-making in complex environments, particularly within development and research settings. As foresight methods continue to gain prominence for decision-making, their application in these settings grows. Funders and policy-makers can benefit from the experience of transformative foresight practitioners and researchers who are skilled in designing novel ways to envision alternative and diverse development futures. Purpose The Seeds of Good Anthropocenes (SoGA) initiative has experimented with transformative foresight since its inception in 2016. We position SoGA within the framework of Minkkinen et al. (2019); we present its transformative capacity through participatory visioning; and we explore how foresight methods can shape strategic development options. Approach and methods We draw lessons from how SoGA, used extensively in various contexts around the world, has introduced experimental transformative foresight to deal with diversity and complexity. We describe the transformative foresight processes in detail. Findings SoGA exemplifies how transformative foresight can support policy and change initiatives by providing participants, planners, and decision-makers with opportunities to reinforce the collaborative and transformative objectives of their policy and convening practices. Such engagement not only deepens the strategic impact of policies, it also encourages a more inclusive and participatory approach to policy development, aligning with broader goals for sustainable and impactful change.

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Abstract Motivation Recurring urban flooding in Bengaluru, India, has brought multiple intersecting development challenges to the forefront. While climate change is a catalyst for flooding, rapid urbanisation has aggravated the problem by neglecting its ecological history. Repeated floods have particularly affected migrants living in the slums, further worsening their already vulnerable conditions. Currently, only about 40% of slums are formally recognized by city authorities, leaving most slum dwellers with limited access to public benefits and basic infrastructure. Although the city offers piecemeal solutions, it currently lacks foresight for long-term planning that includes marginalized voices. Purpose We explore the multiple and intertwined development challenges faced by Bengaluru city, attempting to frame them from the perspective of migrant slum dwellers experiencing flooding. We try to bring to the forefront the everyday risks and vulnerabilities of the marginalized populations in Indian cities, which have received limited attention both in research and policy. The results of this exercise are intended to create sustainable collaborative processes to inform future decisions, particularly addressing the problem of urban flooding. Methods and approach Our proposed methodology integrates climate risk assessment?urban flood modelling and exposure mapping of slums across the city?with vulnerability assessments at the household level including analysis of life histories to capture the relative vulnerabilities of slum dwellers and the slums in which they live. Findings We deconstruct urban flooding, particularly from the perspective of migrant slum dwellers to identify some critical challenges, especially that of recognition, to foresight thinking. By incorporating marginalized voices, our methods aim to be inclusive and contextually relevant, while considering intersectional variations among those marginalized. A mixed-methods approach allows climate risk assessment to be augmented by life histories of vulnerable slum populations to collaboratively reimagine a more inclusive future. Policy implications To make policy more inclusive, more participatory processes are needed. The proposed methods will contextualize everyday vulnerabilities and risks of migrant slum dwellers to bring these perspectives into conventional climate risk assessment. Thus, a more inclusive future with lower impacts from urban floods can be envisaged.

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Abstract Motivation In the three years before 2023, we have seen multiple parallel crises?from climate emergencies to economic instability, dramatic increases in costs of living, and political insecurities. Looming larger than the risks is the resultant uncertainty. Development agents, including governments, are historically unprepared for managing converging crisis. When risks are analysed and governed in narrow ways, the historically oppressed and excluded continue to carry the brunt of impact. Purpose This article reflects on the question: How can institutions, including governments, become more anticipatory against this backdrop, to ensure that their policy and investment choices do not leave anyone behind due to lack of preparedness? Approach and methods It draws insights from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Asia and the Pacific's efforts since 2020 to apply more future-fit planning and programming, recognizing that foresight is not an end in itself, but a mechanism for shaping more anticipatory institutions. It is based on qualitative learning synthesized from over three years of work to establish new systems, capabilities and processes for UNDP and its partners to engage in anticipatory risk and planning. Findings Practices rooted in strategic foresight and anticipation can support institutions to incorporate long-term thinking in planning and analysis, but their translation into development decisions and investments requires shifts in perspectives and risk appetite. Historically, strategic foresight has not been mainstreamed within international organizations and governments owing to: failing to embed anticipation into core systems and processes; giving more attention to tools and building skills than to the demand for alternative decision-making models and to risk tolerance; relying overly on external support and static models; insufficiently attending to organizational culture and relational drivers of thinking and action. Policy implications We suggest four interconnected levers to help sustain impact and equity when bringing anticipatory approaches into policy processes: ensure design elasticity to encourage local, context-specific models of anticipatory decision-making; build anticipatory systems as a base to understand future risks, harms, and correlating impacts; interrogate what counts as legitimate and relevant evidence for policy decisions; cultivate imagination as an act of inquiry.

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Abstract Motivation Being able to anticipate (foresight) and thus identify development pathways and make long-term plans is crucial for the transformation of Africa. However, long-term planning was abandoned as many African countries went into crisis, being mostly forced to adopt structural adjustment programmes in the 1980s. Although long-term planning began to make a comeback in the 1990s, the resulting visions have tended to remain that? visions?not fully reflected in policy implementation. Purpose The article explores the many cycles of foresight in Africa to gain insight into how foresight can become an opportunity to generate new development options and strategies for Africa. Various examples of foresight in Africa are examined to tease out the imperatives for African policy-makers to embed foresight into development management. Approach and Methods We review foresight in Africa, starting by mapping foresight exercises in the continent since independence. We identify three categories of foresight exercises: development partner-led, government-led, and civil society-led. Given the involvement of the authors in some of the exercises, assessments are largely derived from personal communications, recollections, and reflections. Findings Four insights emerge. First, foresight exercises have had little impact on leaders and decision-makers, in large part because they have not been intimately engaged in the exercises. Two, foresight narratives tend to be challenging, raising difficult issues that may require substantial and difficult reforms. Faced with everyday challenges of government, leaders have usually chosen to ignore and disbelieve foresight exercises. Three, foresight analysts have not been sufficiently empathetic to the highly constrained systems of public governance and the ministers and civil servants that operate them. Four, futures initiatives can present the factors that may shape the future as overwhelming; and thereby discounting and undervaluing individual and collective agency. Policy implications Exploring the future is not new in Africa. In traditional African societies, the need to explore the future has been recognized, as captured in proverbs and mythologies. The challenge facing African countries today is how to domesticate and democratize ?modern? foresight so it becomes a way of life for decision-makers and institutions.

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Abstract Motivation Foresight is increasingly being institutionalized and used in science, technology and innovation (STI) policy processes around the world. Foresight is a toolbox to help decision-makers generate intelligence about future scientific and technological advances and to frame long-term STI policy goals and rationales. Foresight can be used to inform policy to steer research and innovation (R&I) towards attaining sustainable development goals. Yet, foresight is not institutionalized and used in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at a time when many governments are formulating new STI policies and some of their science granting councils (SGCs) are setting R&I priorities. Purpose This exploratory study is about challenges and opportunities of institutionalizing STI foresight in SSA. It identifies ways of institutionalizing and using STI foresight. Methods and approach A literature review, bibliometric analysis, interviews, an online survey, and focus group discussions were conducted to identify challenges to, and lessons for, institutionalizing STI foresight in SSA. The literature identified good practices for institutionalizing STI foresight in selected developed countries, to draw lessons for SSA. Findings While academic research on STI foresight and related topics is increasing, there is very limited foresight practice in STI policy processes in SSA. This is mainly owing to low awareness of STI foresight, weak technical capacity, and generally a lack of foresight culture in STI policy-making in the region. Policy implications Building capacity within governments and establishing a community of practice in STI foresight may help improve the quality and effectiveness of STI policy in SSA. It may enable institutions such as science granting councils (SGCs) to make informed funding decisions, targeting scarce resources at priority research and innovation. Overall, building STI foresight literacy and skills, as well as establishing designated offices for STI foresight, supported by the knowledge to select and adapt foresight tools, will result in improved STI policy-making in SSA.

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The food system was developed around a set of policy drivers to make food cheaper and more available, these included promoting agricultural productivity and global trade to increase the availability of food. However, as has been recognised by a plethora of recent papers and reports, these factors have also led to a food system that is unsustainable through its impacts on human health (particularly the growing obesity epidemic) and the environment (e.g. as a major driver of climate change). The world is changing at an unprecedented rate, and the food system is becoming increasingly ‘just in time’, spatially extended, and dependent on more facilitating sectors (water, land, transport, finance, cyber, etc.). This produces a degree of systemic fragility that drivers (like demand) can interact with events (e.g. a climate impact) to create the opportunity for large‐scale shifts in the way the world works. Given the unsustainability of the food system, and the uncertainty of how it may evolve, scenario analysis can be a useful tool for imagining plausible futures as an aid to unlocking ‘business as unusual’ thinking. Summarising a number of recent processes, I describe scenarios of countries’ food systems shaped by changing patterns of trade and changing dietary patterns.

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The COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose a major shock to both UK and global Food and Nutrition Security (FNS) and the full impacts yet contain many unknowns. This report presents a Scenario Planning exercise that has examined current trends and evaluated plausible, future developments to support policy responses. Allowing that the future is inherently unknowable, using scenarios can help to inform contingency planning. This foresight exercise develops four scenarios for alternative UK agricultural land use, land management and supply chain relationships to better understand the consequences for Food and Nutrition Security and long-term environmental sustainability, both in the UK and overseas.

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Scenario exercises can aid decision-making where uncertainty exists. Four future food system scenarios for the UK are explored here for implications on dietary shifts, food waste, biodiversity and food prices.

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Scenarios are used to examine systemic change in food systems so policy makers can craft opportunities to improve the management of uncertainty and shape food policy. We present a number of alternative scenarios of the food system for 2035, developed with the Food Standards Agency, the independent government department working to protect public health and consumers’ interest in relation to food for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. To build scenarios we employed morphological analysis; a non-quantified method for modelling multiple scenario variables (food system drivers, projections), simulating their interactions and all possible scenario combinations. A cross-consistency analysis compared all possible scenario combinations to identify which set of driver projections formed a logical (internally consistent) scenario. Recently, we augmented the scenarios to consider the potential impacts and consequences of Brexit and the pandemic on consumer food safety. Outputs illustrate the consequences of extreme impacts emerging from an optimistic (Global Trading) and pessimistic (Resource Tensions) future for the food system. The scenarios establish a context for foresight in decision-making and a framework for evaluating the robustness of policies considering the opportunities and challenges arising from Brexit and a global pandemic.
•Morphological scenarios examine systemic change in food systems to address uncertainty.•Scenario outputs reveal risks and opportunities related to change in food systems.•Building capacity in scenario development helps to future-proof policy approaches.•Scenarios establish links between foresight and the policy process.

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•Food system projections need to consider a range of potential shocks scenarios.•Connectivity in food systems can increase volatility and vulnerability to shocks.•Loss of food system diversity can reduce resilience.•Social media is increasingly important in shaping attitudes/ behaviours towards food.•Increasing automation within food systems may create new sources of shock.
Globalised food supply chains are increasingly susceptible to systemic risks, with natural, social and economic shocks in one region potentially leading to price spikes and supply changes experienced at the global scale. Projections commonly extrapolate from recent histories and adopt a ‘business as usual’ approach that risks failing to take account of shocks or unpredictable events that can have dramatic consequences for the status quo, as seen with the global Covid-19 pandemic. This study used an explorative stakeholder process and shock centred narratives to discuss the potential impact of a diversity of shocks, examining system characteristics and trends that may amplify their impact. Through the development of scenarios, stakeholders revealed concerns about the stability of the food system and the social, economic and environmental consequence of food related shocks. Increasing connectivity served as a mechanism to heighten volatility and vulnerability within all scenarios, with reliance on singular crops and technologies (i.e. low diversity) throughout systems highlighted as another potential source of vulnerability. The growing role of social media in shaping attitudes and behaviours towards food, and the increasing role of automation emerged as contemporary areas of concern, which have thus far been little explored within the literature.

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Many challenges posed by the current Anthropocene epoch require fundamental transformations to humanity's relationships with the rest of the planet. Achieving such transformations requires that humanity improve its understanding of the current situation and enhance its ability to imagine pathways toward alternative, preferable futures. We review advances in addressing these challenges that employ systematic and structured thinking about multiple possible futures (futures-thinking). Over seven decades, especially the past two, approaches to futures-thinking have helped people from diverse backgrounds reach a common understanding of important issues, underlying causes, and pathways toward optimistic futures. A recent focus has been the stimulation of imagination to produce new options. The roles of futures-thinking in breaking unhelpful social addictions and in conflict resolution are key emerging topics. We summarize cognitive, cultural, and institutional constraints on the societal uptake of futures-thinking, concluding that none are insurmountable once understood.; Many challenges posed by the current Anthropocene epoch require fundamental transformations to humanity's relationships with the rest of the planet. Achieving such transformations requires that humanity improve its understanding of the current situation and enhance its ability to imagine pathways toward alternative, preferable futures. We review advances in addressing these challenges that employ systematic and structured thinking about multiple possible futures (futures-thinking). Over seven decades, especially the past two, approaches to futures-thinking have helped people from diverse backgrounds reach a common understanding of important issues, underlying causes, and pathways toward optimistic futures. A recent focus has been the stimulation of imagination to produce new options. The roles of futures-thinking in breaking unhelpful social addictions and in conflict resolution are key emerging topics. We summarize cognitive, cultural, and institutional constraints on the societal uptake of futures-thinking, concluding that none are insurmountable once understood.

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​How might the world look in 2050, and what sort of UK agri-food system might exist as a result? This report describes four possible futures and what policy planning and research will be needed under each, to move the agri-food system towards a net zero UK.​

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The FABLE Consortium has issued a first report. Over the coming years, members will improve data systems, analytical tools, and analyses of policy options for land-use and food systems. With other parts of the Food and Land-Use Coalition, we work with interested governments to help improve policies and to develop long-term transformation strategies, including low-emission development strategies required under the Paris Agreement. This first report by the FABLE Consortium presents preliminary pathways towards sustainable land-use and food systems prepared by 18 country teams from developed and developing countries, including the European Union. The aim of these pathways is to determine and demonstrate the feasibility of making land-use and food systems sustainable in each country to achieve the SDGs and the objectives of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The report represents the first coordinated effort by researchers from most G20 countries and other nations to chart long-term pathways towards sustainable land-use and food systems. Our preliminary results show that the objectives can be achieved but will require deep transformations in every country.

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In 2017, IIASA continued its mission of building excellence and strengthening capacity in systems analysis research by engaging in projects involving the development of new models and tools or the modification of some of its existing instruments. The strong relationships and collaborative partnerships that the institute has nurtured with research funders, academic institutions, policymakers, and individual researchers in its national member organizations, also provided valuable input to help shape the future of our changing world and provide realistic policy options for putting the world on a sustainable path.
Highlights from projects undertaken at IIASA in 2017 include, to name but a very few, restructuring financial networks to reduce systemic risk, understanding armed conflicts, meeting ambitious climate mitigation targets, and exploring possibilities for risk pooling in global breadbaskets. These and many other highlights from across the institute are available in this Annual Report.

The institute continues to attract and retain exceptional talent and currently has more than 830 research partner institutions in member countries. In 2017, 382 researchers from 48 countries worked at IIASA, while 2,421 associates and scholars visited the institute to do research, collaborate with research programs, and to attend IIASA-organized events. The research done at the institute resulted in 611 publications, of which 396 were peer-reviewed journal articles written in collaboration with over 1,600 coauthors from 159 institutions in 65 countries and regions.

The flagship Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) once again provided an opportunity for students from around the world to work with some of the leading scientists in their fields, with 49 participants from 26 countries included in the 2017 cohort. Since 1977, over 1,920 young scientists from 87 countries have benefitted from the program, which celebrated its 40th anniversary in 2017. The occasion was marked by a two-day conference attended by YSSP alumni, Council members, and distinguished scientists from outside of IIASA, who were invited to continue their ties with the institute, and consider the past and future of the YSSP. In addition, in 2017, 27 postdocs had the opportunity to enhance their skills in systems analysis, and IIASA scientists hosted or coordinated 98 events worldwide, including a number of workshops and activities specifically aimed at building capacity in the field.

Apart from engaging in excellent research, IIASA continues to play an important role in building bridges across political divides through science. In 2017, the institute was privileged to welcome Israel as a new member and successfully continued to collaborate on projects across the world, including in, among others, the greater Eurasian space and the Arctic.

The work of IIASA is made possible through the generous support of a range of organizations and individuals that share a belief in the principle that finding long-lasting solutions to the complex challenges faced by humanity today requires scientific expertise that is free from national interests. We would like to take this opportunity to thank our member countries and all our donors, for their continued support and generosity in 2017. We are truly grateful for their commitment to the mission of the institute.

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In 2021, those working to build food systems that are just, equitable, and operate within planetary boundaries have our work cut out for us. Climate change, biodiversity loss, and rapidly declining soil
fertility are critically damaging the health of people and the planet, dislocating societies, and threatening food systems around the world. Five years into a global commitment to eliminate hunger by 2030, we have lost significant ground. In 2019, an estimated 690 million people were hungry and upwards of 2 billion lacked regular access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food. This was before COVID-19 added approximately 130 million people to the world’s hungry, pushed uncounted millions more to the brink of hunger, and put one third of food and farming livelihoods at risk.
At the same time, the locus of power in food systems and the broader global economy is shifting at dizzying speed. In 2008, the world’s most powerful corporations drilled oil wells and traded stocks. Twelve years later, the world’s five corporate titans all deal in intangible data and have a market valuation that exceeds the GDP of entire continents. The new biodigital giants are now primed for the next step: unleashing big data and digital DNA into the world's pharmacies, food markets, and financial systems. 'Multi-stakeholderism’ is everywhere as corporations – sensing the social and environmental tipping points ahead – seek to draw governments, scientists and a handful of civil society organizations into an artificial new multilateralism.
Against this backdrop, we consider what food systems could look like by 2045 if (agri)business-as-usual is allowed to run its course. We also imagine what could happen if, instead, the initiative is reclaimed by civil society and social movements – from grassroots organizations to international NGOs,
from farmers’ and fishers’ groups, to cooperatives and unions. We consider what this ‘Long Food Movement’ could achieve if it succeeds in thinking decades ahead, collaborating across sectors, scales, and strategic differences, working with governments and pressuring them to act, and transforming financial flows, governance structures, and food systems from the ground up.

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Feeding and nourishing a growing global population in Bangladesh is a major challenge in a changing climate. A multi-level participatory scenario approach with corresponding modeling and decision support tools is developed and applied to support decision-makers in developing scenario-guided enabling policy for food security in the future under climate change. The results presented in this paper show how, under different scenarios, the agri-food system may transform in the next decade as a result of the interaction of intertwined institutional, technological, and market drivers in Bangladesh. For scenario building, the food and agriculture community was brought together with the climate and energy community. We also experimented with different ways to bring voices that are often less included in policymaking, such as poor rural communities and youth. The scenario quantification is performed by MAGNET, a GTAP-based multi-sector and multi-region computable general equilibrium model. The simulation results depict a comprehensive picture of corresponding and varied pressures on agricultural resources and opportunities for economic development and trade in Bangladesh. Finally, we did an ex-ante assessment of the trade-offs and synergies between zero-hunger- and zero-emission-related targets within the Bangladesh Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) under the developed scenarios.

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This report is a contribution to the Oxfam campaign ‘Grow: Food.Life.Planet’. It explores a range of scenarios for food price increases to 2030 through the GLOBE model. Over and above providing a global perspective, the research provides disaggregated results for a range of countries and country groups.

The scenarios include:

Business-as-usual scenarios for 2020 and 2030 under current growth and productivity projections. The focus is on predicted price increases for the major traded agricultural food commodities (rice, wheat and maize) in sub-Saharan Africa (disaggregated by region), Central America, North Africa, and other low-income countries and regions; on the domestic supply responses in these regions; on international trade in agricultural commodities; and on food consumption per capita.
Scenarios of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity by crop and its consequences for food production and prices in sub-Saharan African regions and other developing countries;
Alternative scenarios in which national agricultural productivity rises above predicted trend levels;
For regions in sub-Saharan Africa, a scenario in which anticipated climate change impacts on yields are negated or reduced through adaptation and wider measures.
This report is intended to contribute to the case for more effective international responses to the food security threats posed by rising food prices. A commentary on the results of this research is contained in the report Growing a Better Future.

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Construction of plausible scenarios for alternative futures of global food systems requires an understanding of how the past led to the present, and the past's likely relevance to the future. Policy actions affected the past, but are very difficult to foresee. Among those that most shaped global food systems in the last half century are measures that fostered productivity growth, expansion of trade, and the interlinkage of agricultural and environmental policies. Scenarios for global food systems, including those using the quantitative tools of the CGIAR's Global Futures and Strategic Foresight modeling approach, explore alternative assumptions in these three areas, among others. Hindsight can inform foresight by highlighting key elements of the past and forcing transparent examination of whether and how these elements will shape the future.

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Scenario planning is increasingly recognized as a useful tool for exploring change in social-ecological systems on decadal to centennial time horizons. In environmental decision making, scenario development tends to include participatory methods for engaging stakeholders and is conducted at multiple scales. This paper presents insights from participatory scenario development in two separate multiscale environmental assessments. We find that, to engage stakeholders at multiple scales, it is important that the issues explored at each scale be relevant and credible to stakeholders at that scale. An important trade-off exists between maintaining relevance to stakeholders at different scales and maintaining consistency across scales to allow for comparison of scenarios. Where downscaling methods are used to ensure consistency, there can be important consequences for (1) the diversity of scenario outcomes, (2) temporal mismatches in the storylines at different scales, and (3) power relationships among stakeholders at different scales. We suggest that development of participatory scenarios at multiple scales has a strong potential to contribute to environmental decision making, but it requires a substantial investment of time and resources to realize its full potential.

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Agriculture and food systems are in urgent need of transformation. Various foresight reports unpack food systems’ challenges and propose diverse pathways of change towards sustainability. We interrogate the framings and proposed pathways of eleven selected reports from a food system perspective, with a focus on environmental and climate change implications. We synthesize key drivers of food systems and their impact on food system outcomes. We distil trends and strategies identified across the reports and their scenarios and discuss the diversity of ‘sustainability pathways’ and ‘solution spaces’. There is general agreement that resource protection and adaptation balanced with significant greenhouse gas emission reductions are vital to food system transformation. There is less consensus on the choice of change options and how to address potential trade-offs. While new technologies or consumption changes are described, more attention needs to be paid to overcoming blind spots like implications for equity or changes in governance mechanisms.

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This report aims at inspiring strategic thinking and actions to transform agrifood systems towards a sustainable, resilient and inclusive future, by building on both previous reports in the same series as well as on a comprehensive corporate strategic foresight exercise that also nurtured FAO Strategic Framework 2022–31. It analyses major drivers of agrifood systems and explores how their trends could determine alternative futures of agrifood, socioeconomic and environmental systems. The fundamental message of this report is that it is still possible to push agrifood systems along a pattern of sustainability and resilience, if key “triggers” of transformation are properly activated. However, strategic policy options to activate them will have to “outsmart” vested interests, hidden agendas and conflicting objectives, and trade off short-term unsustainable achievements for longer-term sustainability, resilience and inclusivity.

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Agrifood systems are undergoing a transformation with the aim to provide safer, more affordable, and healthier diets for all, produced in a sustainable manner while delivering just and equitable livelihoods: a key to achieving the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. However, this transformation needs to be executed in the global context of major challenges facing the food and agriculture sectors, with drivers such as climate change, population growth, urbanization, and natural resources depletion compounding these challenges.

Food safety is a keystone to agrifood systems and all food safety actors need to keep pace with the ongoing transformation while preparing to navigate the potential threats, disruptions, and challenges that may arise. Foresight in food safety facilitates the proactive identification of drivers and related trends, both within and outside agrifood systems, that have implications for food safety and therefore also for consumer health, the national economy, and international trade. Early identification and evaluation of drivers and trends promote strategic planning and preparedness to take advantage of emerging opportunities and address challenges in food safety.

In this publication, the FAO Food Safety Foresight programme provides an overview of the major global drivers and trends by describing their implications for food safety in particular and for agrifood systems by extrapolation. The various drivers and trends reported include climate change, changing consumer behaviour and preferences, new food sources and production systems, technological advances, microbiome, circular economy, food fraud, among others.

The intended audience for this publication is broad – from the policymakers, academia, food business operators, private sector, to all of us, the consumers.

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This report includes important recommendations and advice for leaders at the most senior levels in countries and international organisations. It is also of direct relevance to decision makers, professionals, actors in the private sector, experts and researchers with interests in food systems and diets. Many of these individuals will be directly concerned with the production, processing, trade, regulation, supply and safety of food. However, others may work in wider areas of policy and business, for example relating to: public health and well-being, education, economic development and investment, urbanisation, globalisation and demography.
This report and executive summary are necessarily technical due to the nature of the
subject matter. However, they set out the practical steps which are essential for food
systems transformation, and the process of change.

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Non-technical summary
The principal policy focus for food has been to increase agricultural productivity and to liberalize markets allowing globalized trade. This focus has led to huge growth in the supply of agricultural produce, more calories becoming available, and price declining. The availability of cheaper calories increasingly underpins diets creating malnourishment through obesity, and global competition incentivizes producers who can produce the most, cheaply, typically with environmental damage. We propose re-focusing, away from yields per unit input, to the food system's overall productivity and efficiency – the number of people that can be fed healthily and sustainably per unit input.
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Technical summary
Since the Second World War, and particularly in recent decades, the over-arching rationale of agricultural and food trade policy has been that by increasing the productivity of agriculture and efficiency of its markets, trade will drive down food prices, drive up choices and food availability: implicitly defining more available and cheaper food as the route to achieving the international public good of global food security. Here we hypothesize that a focus on increasing availability of food, and lowering food prices through focusing on agricultural productivity and trade does reduce prices and increases availability, but also encourages the externalization of costs on health and environment, and instead of providing public goods arguably represents market failure. In other words, a focus on increasing agricultural yields and efficiency decreases the efficiency of the food system through incentivizing externalization of costs. The focus should rather be on the efficiency of the food system to deliver profits, healthy diets and a healthy planet. Reframing the productivity argument towards the efficiency of the food system provides a clear route to reducing market failure, improving public health and sustainability.

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Grain legumes play a key role in smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), in relation to food and nutrition security and income generation. Moreover, because of their N2-fixation capacity, such legumes can also have a positive influence on soil fertility. Notwithstanding many decades of research on the agronomy of grain legumes, their N2-fixation capacity, and their contribution to overall system productivity, several issues remain to be resolved to realize fully the benefits of grain legumes. In this paper we highlight major lessons learnt and expose key knowledge gaps in relation to grain legumes and their contributions to farming system productivity. The symbiosis between legumes and rhizobia forms the basis for its benefits and biological N2-fixation (BNF) relies as much on the legume genotype as on the rhizobial strains. As such, breeding grain legumes for BNF deserves considerably more attention. Even promiscuous varieties usually respond to inoculation, and as African soils contain a huge pool of unexploited biodiversity with potential to contribute elite rhizobial strains, strain selection should go hand-in-hand with legume breeding for N2-fixation. Although inoculated strains can outcompete indigenous strains, our understanding of what constitutes a good competitor is rudimentary, as well as which factors affect the persistence of inoculated rhizobia, which in its turn determines whether a farmer needs to re-inoculate each and every season. Although it is commonly assumed that indigenous rhizobia are better adapted to local conditions than elite strains used in inoculants, there is little evidence that this is the case. The problems of delivering inoculants to smallholders through poorly-developed supply chains in Africa necessitates inoculants based on sterile carriers with long shelf life. Other factors critical for a well-functioning symbiosis are also central to the overall productivity of grain legumes. Good agronomic practices, including the use of phosphorus (P)-containing fertilizer, improve legume yields though responses to inputs are usually very variable. In some situations, a considerable proportion of soils show no response of legumes to applied inputs, often referred to as non-responsive soils. Understanding the causes underlying this phenomenon is limited and hinders the uptake of legume agronomy practices. Grain legumes also contribute to the productivity of farming systems, although such effects are commonly greater in rotational than in intercropping systems. While most cropping systems allow for the integration of legumes, intercropped legumes provide only marginal benefits to associated crops. Important rotational benefits have been shown for most grain legumes though those with the highest N accumulation and lowest N harvest index appear to demonstrate higher residual benefits. N balance estimates often results in contradictory observations, mostly caused by the lack of understanding of belowground contributions of legumes to the N balance. Lastly, the ultimate condition for increased uptake of grain legumes by smallholder farmers lies in the understanding of how legume technologies and management practices can be tailored to the enormous diversity of agroecologies, farming systems, and smallholder farms in SSA. In conclusion, while research on grain legumes has revealed a number of important insights that will guide realization of the full potential of such legumes to the sustainable intensification of smallholder farming systems in SSA, many research challenges remain to be addressed to realize the full potential of BNF in these systems.

Abstract

Dairy intensification is a widely used means of achieving food security, improving farmer incomes and enhancing overall economic growth. However, intensification is dependent upon the availability and suitability of natural resources to sustain growth in production. Here, land and water footprints of milk production in three contrasting agro-ecological zones ranging from humid to semi-arid across nine counties of Kenya are quantified. Water and land use footprints across three potential intensification pathways are also outlined and evaluated against the baseline scenario, the currently prevailing practices or the S1 Futures scenario, treated as the benchmark. Intensification pathways focusing on improving livestock breeds, feed provisioning and milk output per cow and distinguished by contrasting management practices perform differentially across the three agro-ecological zones. Total water and land footprints increase for all scenarios relative to the baseline scenario. In particular, all the breed improvement scenarios, have much larger total water footprints than the baseline scenario. Improvement in breed to pure bred cattle across all production systems has the largest total water footprint across all the production systems. Across all the scenarios, the largest reduction in water footprint of milk production (75%) occurs with improvement in breed and feeding practices from two scenarios in the lowlands. Milk production by the cross-bred cattle is most efficient in the lowlands system whereas milk production by the pure breed Ayrshire is most land use efficient in the midlands system. Across the three agroecological zones, improving breeds, feed provisioning and milk production per cow may achieve production intensification but concurrently exacerbates resource limitation. Consequently, the heterogeneity inherent in resource availability across dairy production zones should be considered when developing strategies for increasing dairy production.

Abstract

Dictyostelium discoideum amoebae consume bacteria until the supply is exhausted. Then the amoeba cells clump together into a “slug” and initiate a complex multicellular reproductive phase. Specialized cells within aggregates rid the slug of any extracellular bacteria. However, some strains of amoeba tolerate live, intracellular bacteria. Dinh et al. discovered that these carrier strains bear surface lectins that bind Klebsiella bacteria, promote cell entry, and prevent the bacteria from being immediately digested. These bacteria then provide a future food source. Moreover, the internalized bacteria transfer DNA into the amoeba nucleus, resulting in transient genetic transformation.

Abstract

Against a backdrop of a rapidly changing food system and a growing population, characterisation of likely future diets in India can help to inform agriculture and health policies. We systematically searched six published literature databases and grey literature repositories up to January 2018 for studies projecting the consumption of foods in India to time points beyond 2018. The 11 identified studies reported on nine foods up to 2050: the available evidence suggests projected increases in per capita consumption of vegetables, fruit and dairy products, and little projected change in cereal (rice and wheat) and pulse consumption. Meat consumption is projected to remain low. Understanding and mitigating the impacts of projected dietary changes in India is important to protect public health and the environment.

Abstract

Foresight and design are both activities that aim to imagine the future in response to change and uncertainty. Food—a basic human need- has engaged over time in an intrinsic relationship with the design discipline. Design and Food interact at several levels: material (product), immaterial (service) but also prospective (thought). Designers, along with other actors, shape the production, communication, packaging and distribution of food as well as the more ephemeral aspects of food consumption focused on the valorization of people’s senses and experiences. Bearing in mind that each possible design intervention strongly impacts on environmental and social behaviors, the challenge here is to address the challenge of insuring durable innovation within complex social and technological dynamics. Through the lens of an Advanced Design practice, this paper raises the importance of reconsidering the definition of trends in order to build sustainable futures for food and thus for people. Trends are seeds of tomorrow scattered in the overwhelming detail of the present.22Bruland, 2001. Modern societal trends33EU, 2012. are drivers for adequate growth and continuous innovation. With a phenomenological approach this paper wants to show how the attention to trend can change food ways.

Abstract

The processes underlying environmental, economic, and social unsustainability derive in part from the food system. Building sustainable food systems has become a predominating endeavor aiming to redirect our food systems and policies towards better-adjusted goals and improved societal welfare. Food systems are complex social-ecological systems involving multiple interactions between human and natural components. Policy needs to encourage public perception of humanity and nature as interdependent and interacting. The systemic nature of these interdependencies and interactions calls for systems approaches and integrated assessment tools. Identifying and modeling the intrinsic properties of the food system that will ensure its essential outcomes are maintained or enhanced over time and across generations, will help organizations and governmental institutions to track progress towards sustainability, and set policies that encourage positive transformations. This paper proposes a conceptual model that articulates crucial vulnerability and resilience factors to global environmental and socio-economic changes, postulating specific food and nutrition security issues as priority outcomes of food systems. By acknowledging the systemic nature of sustainability, this approach allows consideration of causal factor dynamics. In a stepwise approach, a logical application is schematized for three Mediterranean countries, namely Spain, France, and Italy.

Abstract

Making food production and consumption more sustainable is a highly complex venture, requiring varied policy instruments. While finding an integrated and coherent approach is difficult, the use of strategic foresight might help to fill the gap. This article presents the results of an extensive scenario-building process in which we searched for sustainable solutions regarding food production and consumption in various possible future contexts in Germany. First, so-called context scenarios were formulated to describe different developments beyond the control of the relevant players, but that might have a significant impact on food production and consumption. Second, strategic food scenarios were developed to examine a wide range of sustainable solutions. Finally, the context and strategic food scenarios were merged and assessed to provide policy makers with a helpful ‟reality check" on different strategy options and guidance in prioritization. We explain the underlying methodology and, after a brief discussion of the main advantages and limitations of our approach, we draw some conclusions for sustainable food-consumption policy, highlighting the important role of society

Abstract

A growing number of people in high income countries, also from the segments of population once considered secure, seek food assistance. Diverse food aid initiatives and practices are developed by a range of actors to tackle food poverty; alongside traditional difficulties, new challenges emerge from welfare expenditure cuts, the reorganization of EU Funds for the Most Deprived (FEAD) and from the spreading of surplus food recovery practices by private companies. Based on a preliminary analysis on food assistance practices in Tuscany (Italy), it emerged that operators involved in food assistance activities are reflecting upon future developments: how is food assistance re-thinking its role to deal with the challenges posed by the current context of change? This work adopts a participatory scenario approach to examine pathways that can be considered robust under uncertainties in the planning context of food assistance. We combine the strengths of back-casted planning, which develops desirable pathways for the future, and explorative scenarios that describe plausible future contexts. Results comprise the definition of shared priority themes and plans tested across a set of downscaled scenarios. The methodology provides a promising learning tool to engage with stakeholders and foster a creative future oriented thinking approach to food assistance system’s vulnerability and resilience.

Abstract

A transition towards more sustainable food consumption requires changes in everyday eating patterns, particularly a substitution of animal protein with plant-based protein sources. However, in many European countries plant protein consumption is low compared to meat consumption. The article explores plant protein consumption frequencies, future intentions to increase bean consumption, and the associations of frequent bean eating with socioeconomic factors and bean-related meanings, material issues and competence. A population web-based survey was conducted in 2013 among 15–64-year-old Finns (n=1048). The results showed that beans and soy-based plant proteins were infrequently consumed. A fifth of the respondents intended to increase their bean consumption in the future, intention being the greatest among those who already included beans in their diets. Frequent bean consumption was most likely among persons aged 25–34, living around the capital district, with education higher than comprehensive or vocational school, and who were vegetarian. Perceiving beans as culturally acceptable and good-tasting, and having competence in preparing bean meals were positively associated with the frequent eating of beans. The results suggest that for plant proteins to replace meat, new meanings and competences related to preparing and eating pulse-based dishes are needed. Based on our results, we build alternative future scenarios for plant protein consumption and the related requirements for changes. Several actor groups, such as NGOs, politicians, celebrity chefs and teachers of home economics have a central role in the developments.

Abstract

Abstract Drawing from previous studies, this review proposes a research agenda in regard to household food waste, a neglected topic within the field of consumer behavior. This phenomenon has remarkable social and environmental relevance when one considers that it occurs at the end of the food chain, and thus, wastage at this stage implies losses of resources required for food production. This study aims to provide a framework and solutions for conducting future research in this area. Academic opportunities identified suggest that further theorizing is needed related to consumer food waste, in addition to studies aimed at testing the impact of communication initiatives on behavioral change and at providing a standardized methodology to measure consumer food waste.

Abstract

Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios to present alternative futures to inform policy. Nevertheless, many of these can limit the possibility space with which decision-makers engage. This paper will present a participatory scenario process that maintains a large possibility space through the use of multiple factors and factor-states and a multi-model ensemble to create and quantify four regional scenarios for Southeast Asia. To do this we will explain 1) the process of multi-factor, multi-state building was done in a stakeholder workshop in Vietnam, 2) the scenario quantification and model results from GLOBIOM and IMPACT, two economic models, and 3) how the scenarios have already been applied to diverse policy processes in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam.

Abstract

To describe a more sustainable food sector, a supply chain approach is needed. Changing a supply chain inevitably means that various attributes of the product and its system will change. This project assumed this challenge and delivered detailed descriptions, life cycle assessment (LCA) evaluations, and consequence assessments of the supply chains of six commodities, i.e., milk, cheese, beef, pork, chicken, and bread, from a Swedish region. This paper presents results for the pork supply chain.