By Mohammad Monirul Hasan, Foresight4Food FoSTr Bangladesh Facilitator
In December 2024, I had the privilege to participate in the Delivering for Nutrition (D4N) in South Asia: Connecting the Dots Across Systems conference, held in Colombo, Sri Lanka. This significant event, hosted by IFPRI in collaboration with CGIAR and regional partners, convened experts and stakeholders to tackle South Asia’s enduring nutrition challenges. Given the region’s double burden of malnutrition—persistent undernutrition alongside a surge in obesity and non-communicable diseases—the discussions underscored the urgent need for integrated, forward-thinking strategies to ensure sustainable nutrition security. Here are some of my insights from the conference.
Harnessing Foresight Research for Food Systems Transformation
At the conference, I had the privilege of presenting our research on foresight-driven food systems transformation and the Diet Scenario 2050 for Bangladesh, a project supported by Oxford University, Wageningen University & Research, and GAIN. Our research employs foresight methodologies to anticipate future food system trajectories and design actionable pathways toward nutrition security. By leveraging scenario-building and participatory modeling, we explore how household decision-making, agricultural innovations, and policy interventions can collectively enhance food system resilience.
The Crucial Role of Foresight in Addressing Nutrition Challenges
The conference highlighted foresight methodologies as crucial tools for anticipating emerging trends and informing adaptive policy responses. In dialogues with IFPRI’s Foresight Team and CGIAR’s Food Systems Hub representatives, we explored critical gaps in food systems research and discussed collaborative approaches to align foresight insights with policy and investment strategies. Our discussions identified opportunities for:
- Evidence-Based Policymaking: Using foresight outputs to inform national and regional policy frameworks.
- Scenario Analysis: Modeling climate impacts, dietary shifts, and technological advancements to guide policy development.
- Cross-Sector Collaboration: Engaging agriculture, health, and education sectors to build integrated solutions.
Regional Collaboration and Investment for Food Systems Transformation
The conference provided a unique platform for fostering regional partnerships. Through interactions with policymakers, development agencies, and investors, we identified actionable steps to promote cross-border foresight initiatives that can enhance food systems resilience across South Asia. Key takeaways included:
- Shared Learning Platforms: Promoting knowledge exchange across countries to address common nutrition challenges.
- Regional Investment Frameworks: Encouraging collaborative investments in sustainable food systems and nutrition programs.
- Public-Private Partnerships: Mobilizing resources from diverse sectors to scale impactful innovations.
Insights for Policy and Practice: Moving Forward with Foresight
Key lessons from the conference emphasized the transformative power of foresight for achieving sustainable nutrition outcomes:
- Anticipatory Governance: Foresight can help policymakers proactively address emerging risks and opportunities.
- Systems Thinking: Integrating health, agriculture, and socio-economic perspectives is crucial for holistic solutions.
- Multi-Sectoral Collaboration: Effective partnerships between governments, academia, and the private sector are essential for impactful interventions.
- Investment Alignment: Foresight insights can guide investors to support high-impact initiatives that promote nutrition security.
Conclusion: Shaping the Future of Food Systems in South Asia
This conference reinforced the value of foresight methodologies in driving evidence-based decisions and fostering regional cooperation. It provided a platform to showcase Bangladesh’s commitment to forward-looking strategies and collaborative approaches that address the interlinked challenges of nutrition, climate resilience, and food security. Building on these insights, I look forward to advancing partnerships and implementing foresight-driven initiatives that contribute to sustainable food systems transformation across South Asia.
By Amina Maharjan
Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 is becoming ever more challenging in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), as the region grapples with the many complex and interconnected crises of climate change, biodiversity loss, food and water insecurity, and growing economic inequality, among others. We do not need a crystal ball to help us see what the future climate could hold in store for the people and environment of this region. It is already experiencing the devastating impacts of climate change, with new temperature and precipitation records continually being surpassed. More severe and frequent extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, and avalanches are becoming the norm. For the HKH, elevation-dependent heating means that even a temperature increase of 1.5°C is too hot for the sustainable wellbeing of the region’s people and ecosystems.
If ‘business as usual’ and current emission trends continue, the HKH is on course to experience irreversible changes in its natural and social systems. Without enough food, water, or energy, life would be challenging for the millions of people who call the HKH home, and for some, it would simply be unliveable. It is vital that we start thinking about what kind of future we want to create and how we can act when the worst-case scenario thresholds are crossed. We need to plan for an uncertain future and be better prepared for these worst-case scenarios.
In order to brainstorm together on these shared uncertainties, over 40 participants representing 25 organizations from six countries in the region – Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, and Pakistan – and beyond – Austria, Thailand, United Kingdom, United States of America – came together for a consultative workshop on ‘Foresight and Scenario Development for Anticipatory Adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya’ on 19–20 September 2023, organized by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Kathmandu, Nepal. The participants included representatives from governments, international organizations, NGOs, think tanks, universities, and research institutions.
Over the two days, the participants engaged in a horizontal scanning exercise to look at potential changes/disruptors in the HKH region in the future. The group also looked at building capacity for foresight and futures thinking at different scales of planning – from national to local levels.
Foresight and scenarios are tools that can help us reimagine plural futures. They help us think about the future in systematic, rigorous, and inclusive ways. It involves identifying potential future trends and challenges in order to develop strategies to address them. This approach has not been used widely in this region, but that needs to change as we prepare for an uncertain future.
This gathering was the beginning of a process to encourage futures thinking in the region. Overall, there was consensus on the need for futures thinking across sectors and scales and a commitment to continue collaboration. As a participant from Bangladesh highlighted “We cannot only depend on the past (and historic trends) to plan our future under the rapid change and uncertainty that we are witnessing in the region. It is critically important to envision futures at different scales and with diverse stakeholders to drive our actions now.” Without foresight and scenarios thinking, no organisation or community can remain future fit.
Such planning is especially crucial for a region as vulnerable as the HKH – subject not only to the extremities of its geography and topography, but also because of its varied social, demographic, political and economic conditions. Just one major weather event can set communities back 20 years in development. We must think creatively and long-term about how to address the major challenges, and we must do it now.
IFPRI-South Asia and ACIAR’s SDIP conducted a learning and professional development workshop for strengthening capacities on food systems foresight. The event brought together over 60 practitioners from Nepal, Bangladesh, and India in Kathmandu from the 11th-14th of February 2019. The workshop is part of a two-year foresight exercise focused on understanding the food system in the Eastern Gangetic Plain.
It also followed the launch of the Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme’s (HIMAP) ‘The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment’. The Assessment addresses the key environmental and socio-economic pillars for sustainable development in the Hindu Kush and Himalaya regions. It is a comprehensive assessment of the current knowledge of the region and set the stage for the ‘Bracing for the Future’ event in Kathmandu with SDIP.
Some of the fastest growing economies in the region, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal offer new opportunities for transformative change in food systems. However, these are inter-linked with major challenges in the development of sustainable, equitable, and healthy food systems, and unpredictable drivers and uncertainties. Understanding these uncertainties and exploring the potential pathways for change need the collaborative involvement of all stakeholders, and a systems and foresight approach.
The four-day exercise had two primary goals: the first was to create and nurture greater collaboration between the regional partners, and the second was to start a collaborative process to identify the preferred and necessary transformative pathways needed to make the regional food system more sustainable, resilient, and better serving the needs of the population.
Organized around the food systems foresight framework of the Foresight4Food Initiative, the workshop was structured as follows:
- Day 1: Introduction to foresight and food systems for the EGP
- Day 2: Food systems and foresight methodology, modelling and data contributions
- Day 3: Mapping food system dynamics, and identifying and prioritizing drivers, trends, and uncertainties
- Day 4: Developing scenarios for food systems and identifying future collaborations and pathways of taking foresight forward in the region
The workshop objectives were achieved with a set of short informative presentations that synthesized the status of knowledge and participatory sessions on mapping food system dynamics and scenario-building exercises. The participants were divided in to four location groups, with each group tasked with identifying a key area where foresight can be applied in their location, and how SDIP might be able to support a future exercise, and what steps might be needed to inform policy decisions.
Andrew Campbell, CEO for ACIAR highlighted the necessity of effective partnerships and ensuring the integration of foresight with wider food systems efforts for achieving sustainability, equitability and health for the future. These would remain a running theme throughout the workshop. Professor Prabhu Pingali set the foundation for the workshop by presenting the evidence on crop productivity, poverty, health, urbanization, and the regional nuances in South Asia. The role and importance of smallholder farmers and the middle-class in the region was emphasised, particularly in reference with transitioning value chains. Referring to the ‘Agriculture and Food Systems to 2050’ book published in 2018, Professor Pingali contextualized the importance of agricultural and food research for addressing the complex challenges the region and the world faces for the future. The presentation provided useful grounding for the rich picturing exercises for the day, where the participants developed a food systems map for their respective locations.
The importance of data was built on in Day 2 with an overview of key models and data sets that are commonly used in food systems, and an in depth analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of modelling. The IMPACT and APSIM models were used to discuss how models can be used more robustly and demystified terminology used in model-based data analysis. Other presentations examined the critical uncertainties around climate change, and presented examples where models have been used to inform decision-making in South Asia, specifically with the CCAFS project. These presentations were used to help the participants think of the data and modelling needs for addressing the food system challenges in their locations, and understanding the capabilities of models and existing data sets.
Key experts in the area led thematic sessions on the water, food, and energy nexus, women in food systems, agriculture, labour, migration, and livelihoods, and regional trade and markets. The outcomes from these groups were charted with causal loop diagrams to examine connections, reinforcing linkages, and dampening loops in the food systems. The scenario planning and visioning exercises built on these practical sessions to help the participants finalize their project briefs and identify preferable and plausible transformation pathways for the future.
The synthesis presentations and project briefs were discussed on Day 4, with each group presenting their ideas, the processes, data, and collaborations needed to achieve the, and their reflections on the foresight process. The event concluded with discussions on how the project ideas could be taken forward through the SDIP’s existing process, a reiteration of the value of foresight if it carried out with existing work in food systems, and a reflection on the necessity of collaboration in addressing the complex challenges that lie ahead.
Blog by Saher Hasnain – Research and Community of Practice Coordinator