The featured foresight resources give quick access to a diversity of approaches and guides being used by a range of organizations. They help to give an overview of the world of foresight. The featured works will change over time. Being presented here does not imply any endorsement of the resource or methodology by Foresight4Food or the Foresight4Food community members.
Vincent Abe-Inge, Raphael Aidoo, Mariana Moncada de la Fuente, Ebenezer M. Kwofie
Abstract
Background
Plant-based foods in recent times have received attention from environmentalists due to their lower impacts on the environment. Additionally, they are found to improve health better than animal-based foods. Despite the benefits associated with plant-based diets, their full adoption faces several interconnected barriers.
Scope and approach
The review aimed to comprehensively highlight the barriers against plant-based food adoption. It also aimed to outline the progress, trends and supporting factors in plant-based food manufacturing and plant-based food consumption. The review finally discusses strategies to overcome the identified barriers against the adoption of plant-based foods.
Key findings
It was found that aside from social, economic, nutritional, legal, religious, and cultural barriers, most of the raw materials used in manufacturing plant-based foods are sources of major food allergens. Regardless, plant-based alternative food manufacturing is spreading worldwide, and research activities focused on plant-based foods have tripled in the last three years. In conclusion, despite the existing barriers, the plant-based and alternative protein industry appears to thrive, and measures to address the identified barriers have emerged and are yielding a positive impact.
Vincent Abe-Inge, Raphael Aidoo, Mariana Moncada de la Fuente, Ebenezer M. Kwofie
Abstract
Background
Plant-based foods in recent times have received attention from environmentalists due to their lower impacts on the environment. Additionally, they are found to improve health better than animal-based foods. Despite the benefits associated with plant-based diets, their full adoption faces several interconnected barriers.
Scope and approach
The review aimed to comprehensively highlight the barriers against plant-based food adoption. It also aimed to outline the progress, trends and supporting factors in plant-based food manufacturing and plant-based food consumption. The review finally discusses strategies to overcome the identified barriers against the adoption of plant-based foods.
Key findings
It was found that aside from social, economic, nutritional, legal, religious, and cultural barriers, most of the raw materials used in manufacturing plant-based foods are sources of major food allergens. Regardless, plant-based alternative food manufacturing is spreading worldwide, and research activities focused on plant-based foods have tripled in the last three years. In conclusion, despite the existing barriers, the plant-based and alternative protein industry appears to thrive, and measures to address the identified barriers have emerged and are yielding a positive impact.
Andrew Challinor, Vanessa Meadu, Charlie Spillane, Stephen Whitfield, Jon Hellin, Steve Taylor, Peter Mckeown, Carmody Grey, Marieke Veeger, Lucas Rutting
Scenarios of global food consumption : implications for agriculture
2023
Ronald (Ronald D.) Sands, Birgit Meade, James L. Seale, Sherman Robinson, Riley Seeger
Abstract
The global land base is under increasing pressure to provide food for a growing population. This report describes how increasing population, income, and agricultural productivity may affect global production and consumption of crops and food products by 2050. Results show that in an income-driven food demand scenario, production of world crop calories increases by 47 percent from 2011 to 2050. Demand for food calories and crop calories increases over time in all scenarios, with most of the adjustment through increases in crop yield (intensification). The amount of cropland also increases (extensification) but less on a percentage basis
As a particular subfield of futures studies, foresight evaluation has not yet been thoroughly studied. This paper investigates research on foresight evaluation, reviewing authors, articles, journals, topics, evaluative elements, and foresight frames. We analyzed 186 academic papers published over the past 30 years. The analysis shows that foresight evaluation, which originated in Europe and partly diffused to North America and Asia, is still an emerging discipline. Research on the evaluation of foresight has covered four topics: 1) Project for Policy, 2) Future Methodology, 3) Technology, and 4) Future Impact; studies in these areas show that there is currently no active research on topics other than technology. Each of these four topics encompasses traditional evaluative elements, such as impact and quality, but few studies reflect the hopeful element of learning. Also, the results of our analysis show that the predictive and planning frames are in high demand, while less predictable frames are not. This study elucidates the reasons behind the inactive state of foresight evaluation research. This paper argues that both researchers and decision-makers have an important role in overcoming this inertia and finding new paths for continuing the development of foresight evaluation.
The ability of food systems to feed the world’s population will continue to be constrained in the face of global warming and other global challenges. Often missing from the literature on future food security are different scenarios of population growth. Also, most climate models use given population projections and consider neither major increases in mortality nor rapid declines in fertility. In this paper, we present the current global food system challenge and consider both relatively high and relatively low fertility trajectories and their impacts for food policy and systems. Two futures are proposed. The first is a “stormy future” which is an extension of the “business as usual” scenario. The population would be hit hard by conflict, global warming, and/or other calamities and shocks (e.g., potentially another pandemic). These factors would strain food production and wreak havoc on both human and planetary health. Potential increases in mortality (from war, famine, and/or infectious diseases) cannot be easily modeled because the time, location, and magnitude of such events are unknowable, but a challenged future is foreseen for food security. The second trajectory considered is the “brighter future,” in which there would be increased access to education for girls and to reproductive health services and rapid adoption of the small family norm. World average fertility would decline to 1.6 births per woman by 2040, resulting in a population of 8.4 billion in 2075. This would put less pressure on increasing food production and allow greater scope for preservation of natural ecosystems. These two trajectories demonstrate why alternative population growth scenarios need to be investigated when considering future food system transitions. Demographers need to be involved in teams working on projections of climate and food security.
Rika Preiser, Tanja Hichert, Reinette Biggs, Julia van Velden, Nyasha Magadzire, Garry Peterson, Laura Pereira, Keziah Mayer, Karina Benessaiah
Abstract
Abstract Motivation Foresight methods are increasingly recognized as essential for decision-making in complex environments, particularly within development and research settings. As foresight methods continue to gain prominence for decision-making, their application in these settings grows. Funders and policy-makers can benefit from the experience of transformative foresight practitioners and researchers who are skilled in designing novel ways to envision alternative and diverse development futures. Purpose The Seeds of Good Anthropocenes (SoGA) initiative has experimented with transformative foresight since its inception in 2016. We position SoGA within the framework of Minkkinen et al. (2019); we present its transformative capacity through participatory visioning; and we explore how foresight methods can shape strategic development options. Approach and methods We draw lessons from how SoGA, used extensively in various contexts around the world, has introduced experimental transformative foresight to deal with diversity and complexity. We describe the transformative foresight processes in detail. Findings SoGA exemplifies how transformative foresight can support policy and change initiatives by providing participants, planners, and decision-makers with opportunities to reinforce the collaborative and transformative objectives of their policy and convening practices. Such engagement not only deepens the strategic impact of policies, it also encourages a more inclusive and participatory approach to policy development, aligning with broader goals for sustainable and impactful change.
Abstract Motivation Close to a third of the world's population and more than 80% of people living in extreme poverty live in contexts of fragility. With agencies such as the OECD and UNDP conceiving of such places in terms of multiple and serious risks, the framing has come to be one of pathology: fragile contexts are defined by deficits with respect to idealized governance and sustainable development goals. In consequence, development options are locked into managing risks?confining opportunities to develop potential. Purpose Can strategic foresight unlock the development potential of fragile societies? Approach and methods Because there is still little documentation of foresight initiatives in contexts of fragility, the approach here is theoretical and conceptual. We draw on literature from the fields of fragility, foresight, and cognition, as well as insights from expert exchanges and roundtables. Findings It is uncertainty, not risk, that lies at the heart of fragility?an insight that challenges standard decision-making. With the latter being based on analogical reasoning, it cannot be logically applied under conditions of uncertainty. If, instead, we adopt an heuristic for decision-making that acknowledges uncertainty to not only entail risk but also opportunity, strategic foresight is well-placed to help revive development. Policy Implications First, fragility has to be reframed to acknowledge the centrality of uncertainty, not risk, in approaching fragility. Whilst evidence from the past is important, scrutinizing past paradigms and envisioning different futures is crucial. Second, strategic foresight can help uncover fragile societies? capacities and potential. It can help shift from analyses dominated by a concern with lacks and deficits, to analyses which seek relative strengths and opportunities. Just as strong states are not strong in every respect, fragile states may have more to offer than meets the eye. Third, debates need to be more open, less ideologically laden. Dominant thinking on fragility is rife with seemingly imperturbable underpinnings: for example, the mantra that ?without peace there can be no development, and without development there can be no peace.? While such propositions contain some truth, treating them as absolute and universally applicable, limits both thinking and policy options. Strategic foresight is well placed to provide a fresh view on fragility.
Abstract Motivation Strategic foresight is gaining traction for anticipating changes in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world?one which will require different mindsets and approaches. Yet international development co-operation practitioners have been slow to adopt foresight. Purpose What promises and pitfalls should development practitioners consider in order to integrate strategic foresight into their work? Methods and approach We review the literature on strategic foresight applied to development. We draw on reflections from the articles included in this special issue. We incorporate the International Development Research Centre's experiences and early insights on the use of foresight for development. Findings Strategic foresight provides tools to anticipate long-term and potentially disruptive change. To apply the approach effectively, organizations need to understand the debates about foresight. But no one size fits all: organizations must identify where and how foresight can best be used; be clear on its purpose, use, and end-users; be sensitive to how foresight intersects with broader calls for decolonizing development and the future; and should adapt methods to different sociocultural contexts. Connecting foresight practitioners and international development actors to explore potential synergies between these two worlds offers opportunities to innovate. Policy implications Traditional, short-term strategic planning, and reactive responses to emerging crises, are increasingly ill-suited to a VUCA world. To be fit for the future, international development actors must consider adding proactive longer-term anticipatory planning?that accommodates more systematic understanding and appreciation of plausible futures?to reactive responses.
Abstract Motivation In the three years before 2023, we have seen multiple parallel crises?from climate emergencies to economic instability, dramatic increases in costs of living, and political insecurities. Looming larger than the risks is the resultant uncertainty. Development agents, including governments, are historically unprepared for managing converging crisis. When risks are analysed and governed in narrow ways, the historically oppressed and excluded continue to carry the brunt of impact. Purpose This article reflects on the question: How can institutions, including governments, become more anticipatory against this backdrop, to ensure that their policy and investment choices do not leave anyone behind due to lack of preparedness? Approach and methods It draws insights from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Asia and the Pacific's efforts since 2020 to apply more future-fit planning and programming, recognizing that foresight is not an end in itself, but a mechanism for shaping more anticipatory institutions. It is based on qualitative learning synthesized from over three years of work to establish new systems, capabilities and processes for UNDP and its partners to engage in anticipatory risk and planning. Findings Practices rooted in strategic foresight and anticipation can support institutions to incorporate long-term thinking in planning and analysis, but their translation into development decisions and investments requires shifts in perspectives and risk appetite. Historically, strategic foresight has not been mainstreamed within international organizations and governments owing to: failing to embed anticipation into core systems and processes; giving more attention to tools and building skills than to the demand for alternative decision-making models and to risk tolerance; relying overly on external support and static models; insufficiently attending to organizational culture and relational drivers of thinking and action. Policy implications We suggest four interconnected levers to help sustain impact and equity when bringing anticipatory approaches into policy processes: ensure design elasticity to encourage local, context-specific models of anticipatory decision-making; build anticipatory systems as a base to understand future risks, harms, and correlating impacts; interrogate what counts as legitimate and relevant evidence for policy decisions; cultivate imagination as an act of inquiry.
Abstract Motivation Recurring urban flooding in Bengaluru, India, has brought multiple intersecting development challenges to the forefront. While climate change is a catalyst for flooding, rapid urbanisation has aggravated the problem by neglecting its ecological history. Repeated floods have particularly affected migrants living in the slums, further worsening their already vulnerable conditions. Currently, only about 40% of slums are formally recognized by city authorities, leaving most slum dwellers with limited access to public benefits and basic infrastructure. Although the city offers piecemeal solutions, it currently lacks foresight for long-term planning that includes marginalized voices. Purpose We explore the multiple and intertwined development challenges faced by Bengaluru city, attempting to frame them from the perspective of migrant slum dwellers experiencing flooding. We try to bring to the forefront the everyday risks and vulnerabilities of the marginalized populations in Indian cities, which have received limited attention both in research and policy. The results of this exercise are intended to create sustainable collaborative processes to inform future decisions, particularly addressing the problem of urban flooding. Methods and approach Our proposed methodology integrates climate risk assessment?urban flood modelling and exposure mapping of slums across the city?with vulnerability assessments at the household level including analysis of life histories to capture the relative vulnerabilities of slum dwellers and the slums in which they live. Findings We deconstruct urban flooding, particularly from the perspective of migrant slum dwellers to identify some critical challenges, especially that of recognition, to foresight thinking. By incorporating marginalized voices, our methods aim to be inclusive and contextually relevant, while considering intersectional variations among those marginalized. A mixed-methods approach allows climate risk assessment to be augmented by life histories of vulnerable slum populations to collaboratively reimagine a more inclusive future. Policy implications To make policy more inclusive, more participatory processes are needed. The proposed methods will contextualize everyday vulnerabilities and risks of migrant slum dwellers to bring these perspectives into conventional climate risk assessment. Thus, a more inclusive future with lower impacts from urban floods can be envisaged.
Abstract Motivation Foresight is increasingly being institutionalized and used in science, technology and innovation (STI) policy processes around the world. Foresight is a toolbox to help decision-makers generate intelligence about future scientific and technological advances and to frame long-term STI policy goals and rationales. Foresight can be used to inform policy to steer research and innovation (R&I) towards attaining sustainable development goals. Yet, foresight is not institutionalized and used in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at a time when many governments are formulating new STI policies and some of their science granting councils (SGCs) are setting R&I priorities. Purpose This exploratory study is about challenges and opportunities of institutionalizing STI foresight in SSA. It identifies ways of institutionalizing and using STI foresight. Methods and approach A literature review, bibliometric analysis, interviews, an online survey, and focus group discussions were conducted to identify challenges to, and lessons for, institutionalizing STI foresight in SSA. The literature identified good practices for institutionalizing STI foresight in selected developed countries, to draw lessons for SSA. Findings While academic research on STI foresight and related topics is increasing, there is very limited foresight practice in STI policy processes in SSA. This is mainly owing to low awareness of STI foresight, weak technical capacity, and generally a lack of foresight culture in STI policy-making in the region. Policy implications Building capacity within governments and establishing a community of practice in STI foresight may help improve the quality and effectiveness of STI policy in SSA. It may enable institutions such as science granting councils (SGCs) to make informed funding decisions, targeting scarce resources at priority research and innovation. Overall, building STI foresight literacy and skills, as well as establishing designated offices for STI foresight, supported by the knowledge to select and adapt foresight tools, will result in improved STI policy-making in SSA.
Abstract Motivation Being able to anticipate (foresight) and thus identify development pathways and make long-term plans is crucial for the transformation of Africa. However, long-term planning was abandoned as many African countries went into crisis, being mostly forced to adopt structural adjustment programmes in the 1980s. Although long-term planning began to make a comeback in the 1990s, the resulting visions have tended to remain that? visions?not fully reflected in policy implementation. Purpose The article explores the many cycles of foresight in Africa to gain insight into how foresight can become an opportunity to generate new development options and strategies for Africa. Various examples of foresight in Africa are examined to tease out the imperatives for African policy-makers to embed foresight into development management. Approach and Methods We review foresight in Africa, starting by mapping foresight exercises in the continent since independence. We identify three categories of foresight exercises: development partner-led, government-led, and civil society-led. Given the involvement of the authors in some of the exercises, assessments are largely derived from personal communications, recollections, and reflections. Findings Four insights emerge. First, foresight exercises have had little impact on leaders and decision-makers, in large part because they have not been intimately engaged in the exercises. Two, foresight narratives tend to be challenging, raising difficult issues that may require substantial and difficult reforms. Faced with everyday challenges of government, leaders have usually chosen to ignore and disbelieve foresight exercises. Three, foresight analysts have not been sufficiently empathetic to the highly constrained systems of public governance and the ministers and civil servants that operate them. Four, futures initiatives can present the factors that may shape the future as overwhelming; and thereby discounting and undervaluing individual and collective agency. Policy implications Exploring the future is not new in Africa. In traditional African societies, the need to explore the future has been recognized, as captured in proverbs and mythologies. The challenge facing African countries today is how to domesticate and democratize ?modern? foresight so it becomes a way of life for decision-makers and institutions.
E. A. Moallemi, F. J. de Haan, M. Hadjikakou, S. Khatami, S. Malekpour, A. Smajgl, M. Stafford Smith, A. Voinov, R. Bandari, P. Lamichhane, K. K. Miller, E. Nicholson, W. Novalia, E. G. Ritchie, A. M. Rojas, M. A. Shaikh, K. Szetey, B. A. Bryan
Abstract
Abstract The achievement of global sustainability agendas, such as the Sustainable Development Goals, relies on transformational change across society, economy, and environment that are co-created in a transdisciplinary exercise by all stakeholders. Within this context, environmental and societal change is increasingly understood and represented via participatory modeling for genuine engagement with multiple collaborators in the modeling process. Despite the diversity of participatory modeling methods to promote engagement and co-creation, it remains uncertain what the extent and modes of participation are in different contexts, and how to select the suitable methods to use in a given situation. Based on a review of available methods and specification of potential contextual requirements, we propose a unifying framework to guide how collaborators of different backgrounds can work together and evaluate the suitability of participatory modeling methods for co-creating sustainability pathways. The evaluation of method suitability promises the integration of concepts and approaches necessary to address the complexities of problems at hand while ensuring robust methodologies based on well-tested evidence and negotiated among participants. Using two illustrative case studies, we demonstrate how to explore and evaluate the choice of methods for participatory modeling in varying contexts. The insights gained can inform creative participatory approaches to pathway development through tailored combinations of methods that best serve the specific sustainability context of particular case studies.
Kate R. Schneider, Jessica Fanzo, Lawrence Haddad, Mario Herrero, Jose Rosero Moncayo, Anna Herforth, Roseline Remans, Alejandro Guarin, Danielle Resnick, Namukolo Covic, Christophe Béné, Andrea Cattaneo, Nancy Aburto, Ramya Ambikapathi, Destan Aytekin, Simon Barquera, Jane Battersby, Ty Beal, Paulina Bizzoto Molina, Carlo Cafiero, Christine Campeau, Patrick Caron, Piero Conforti, Kerstin Damerau, Michael Di Girolamo, Fabrice DeClerck, Deviana Dewi, Ismahane Elouafi, Carola Fabi, Pat Foley, Tyler J. Frazier, Jessica Gephart, Christopher Golden, Carlos Gonzalez Fischer, Sheryl Hendriks, Maddalena Honorati, Jikun Huang, Gina Kennedy, Amos Laar, Rattan Lal, Preetmoninder Lidder, Brent Loken, Quinn Marshall, Yuta J. Masuda, Rebecca McLaren, Lais Miachon, Hernán Muñoz, Stella Nordhagen, Naina Qayyum, Michaela Saisana, Diana Suhardiman, U. Rashid Sumaila, Maximo Torero Cullen, Francesco N. Tubiello, Jose-Luis Vivero-Pol, Patrick Webb, Keith Wiebe
Abstract
This Analysis presents a recently developed food system indicator framework and holistic monitoring architecture to track food system transformation towards global development, health and sustainability goals. Five themes are considered: (1) diets, nutrition and health; (2) environment, natural resources and production; (3) livelihoods, poverty and equity; (4) governance; and (5) resilience. Each theme is divided into three to five indicator domains, and indicators were selected to reflect each domain through a consultative process. In total, 50 indicators were selected, with at least one indicator available for every domain. Harmonized data of these 50 indicators provide a baseline assessment of the world’s food systems. We show that every country can claim positive outcomes in some parts of food systems, but none are among the highest ranked across all domains. Furthermore, some indicators are independent of national income, and each highlights a specific aspiration for healthy, sustainable and just food systems. The Food Systems Countdown Initiative will track food systems annually to 2030, amending the framework as new indicators or better data emerge.
The food system was developed around a set of policy drivers to make food cheaper and more available, these included promoting agricultural productivity and global trade to increase the availability of food. However, as has been recognised by a plethora of recent papers and reports, these factors have also led to a food system that is unsustainable through its impacts on human health (particularly the growing obesity epidemic) and the environment (e.g. as a major driver of climate change). The world is changing at an unprecedented rate, and the food system is becoming increasingly ‘just in time’, spatially extended, and dependent on more facilitating sectors (water, land, transport, finance, cyber, etc.). This produces a degree of systemic fragility that drivers (like demand) can interact with events (e.g. a climate impact) to create the opportunity for large‐scale shifts in the way the world works. Given the unsustainability of the food system, and the uncertainty of how it may evolve, scenario analysis can be a useful tool for imagining plausible futures as an aid to unlocking ‘business as unusual’ thinking. Summarising a number of recent processes, I describe scenarios of countries’ food systems shaped by changing patterns of trade and changing dietary patterns.
Scenarios for UK Food and Nutrition Security in the wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic
2021
Dominic Duckett, Mike Rivington, Richard King, Alba Juárez-Bourke, Altea Lorenzo-Arribas
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose a major shock to both UK and global Food and Nutrition Security (FNS) and the full impacts yet contain many unknowns. This report presents a Scenario Planning exercise that has examined current trends and evaluated plausible, future developments to support policy responses. Allowing that the future is inherently unknowable, using scenarios can help to inform contingency planning. This foresight exercise develops four scenarios for alternative UK agricultural land use, land management and supply chain relationships to better understand the consequences for Food and Nutrition Security and long-term environmental sustainability, both in the UK and overseas.
Scenario exercises can aid decision-making where uncertainty exists. Four future food system scenarios for the UK are explored here for implications on dietary shifts, food waste, biodiversity and food prices.
Scenario exercises can aid decision-making where uncertainty exists. Four future food system scenarios for the UK are explored here for implications on dietary shifts, food waste, biodiversity and food prices.
Kenisha Garnett, Joao Delgado, Fiona A. Lickorish, Simon J. T. Pollard, Angel Medina-Vaya, Naresh Magan, Paul Leinster, Leon A. Terry
Abstract
Scenarios are used to examine systemic change in food systems so policy makers can craft opportunities to improve the management of uncertainty and shape food policy. We present a number of alternative scenarios of the food system for 2035, developed with the Food Standards Agency, the independent government department working to protect public health and consumers’ interest in relation to food for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. To build scenarios we employed morphological analysis; a non-quantified method for modelling multiple scenario variables (food system drivers, projections), simulating their interactions and all possible scenario combinations. A cross-consistency analysis compared all possible scenario combinations to identify which set of driver projections formed a logical (internally consistent) scenario. Recently, we augmented the scenarios to consider the potential impacts and consequences of Brexit and the pandemic on consumer food safety. Outputs illustrate the consequences of extreme impacts emerging from an optimistic (Global Trading) and pessimistic (Resource Tensions) future for the food system. The scenarios establish a context for foresight in decision-making and a framework for evaluating the robustness of policies considering the opportunities and challenges arising from Brexit and a global pandemic.
•Morphological scenarios examine systemic change in food systems to address uncertainty.•Scenario outputs reveal risks and opportunities related to change in food systems.•Building capacity in scenario development helps to future-proof policy approaches.•Scenarios establish links between foresight and the policy process.
Nadia Sitas, Zuzana V. Harmáčková, Jonathan A. Anticamara, Almut Arneth, Ruchi Badola, Reinette Biggs, Ryan Blanchard, Lluis Brotons, Matthew Cantele, Kaera Coetzer, Rajarshi DasGupta, Eefje den Belder, Sonali Ghosh, Antoine Guisan, Haripriya Gundimeda, Maike Hamann, Paula A. Harrison, Shizuka Hashimoto, Jennifer Hauck, Brian J. Klatt, Kasper Kok, Rainer M. Krug, Aidin Niamir, Patrick J. O'Farrell, Sana Okayasu, Ignacio Palomo, Laura M. Pereira, Philip Riordan, Fernando Santos-Martín, Odirilwe Selomane, Yunne-Jai Shin, Mireia Valle
Abstract
Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures.]
Hannah Hamilton, Roslyn Henry, Mark Rounsevell, Dominic Moran, Frances Cossar, Kathleen Allen, Lisa Boden, Peter Alexander
Abstract
•Food system projections need to consider a range of potential shocks scenarios.•Connectivity in food systems can increase volatility and vulnerability to shocks.•Loss of food system diversity can reduce resilience.•Social media is increasingly important in shaping attitudes/ behaviours towards food.•Increasing automation within food systems may create new sources of shock.
Globalised food supply chains are increasingly susceptible to systemic risks, with natural, social and economic shocks in one region potentially leading to price spikes and supply changes experienced at the global scale. Projections commonly extrapolate from recent histories and adopt a ‘business as usual’ approach that risks failing to take account of shocks or unpredictable events that can have dramatic consequences for the status quo, as seen with the global Covid-19 pandemic. This study used an explorative stakeholder process and shock centred narratives to discuss the potential impact of a diversity of shocks, examining system characteristics and trends that may amplify their impact. Through the development of scenarios, stakeholders revealed concerns about the stability of the food system and the social, economic and environmental consequence of food related shocks. Increasing connectivity served as a mechanism to heighten volatility and vulnerability within all scenarios, with reliance on singular crops and technologies (i.e. low diversity) throughout systems highlighted as another potential source of vulnerability. The growing role of social media in shaping attitudes and behaviours towards food, and the increasing role of automation emerged as contemporary areas of concern, which have thus far been little explored within the literature.
Steven Cork, Carla Alexandra, Jorge Alvarez-Romero, Elena M. Bennett, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Erin Bohensky, Barbara Bok, Robert Costanza, Shizuka Hashimoto, Rosemary Hill, Sohail Inayatullah, Kasper Kok, Jan J. Kuiper, Magnus Moglia, Laura Pereira, Garry Peterson, Rebecca Weeks, Carina Wyborn
Abstract
Many challenges posed by the current Anthropocene epoch require fundamental transformations to humanity's relationships with the rest of the planet. Achieving such transformations requires that humanity improve its understanding of the current situation and enhance its ability to imagine pathways toward alternative, preferable futures. We review advances in addressing these challenges that employ systematic and structured thinking about multiple possible futures (futures-thinking). Over seven decades, especially the past two, approaches to futures-thinking have helped people from diverse backgrounds reach a common understanding of important issues, underlying causes, and pathways toward optimistic futures. A recent focus has been the stimulation of imagination to produce new options. The roles of futures-thinking in breaking unhelpful social addictions and in conflict resolution are key emerging topics. We summarize cognitive, cultural, and institutional constraints on the societal uptake of futures-thinking, concluding that none are insurmountable once understood.; Many challenges posed by the current Anthropocene epoch require fundamental transformations to humanity's relationships with the rest of the planet. Achieving such transformations requires that humanity improve its understanding of the current situation and enhance its ability to imagine pathways toward alternative, preferable futures. We review advances in addressing these challenges that employ systematic and structured thinking about multiple possible futures (futures-thinking). Over seven decades, especially the past two, approaches to futures-thinking have helped people from diverse backgrounds reach a common understanding of important issues, underlying causes, and pathways toward optimistic futures. A recent focus has been the stimulation of imagination to produce new options. The roles of futures-thinking in breaking unhelpful social addictions and in conflict resolution are key emerging topics. We summarize cognitive, cultural, and institutional constraints on the societal uptake of futures-thinking, concluding that none are insurmountable once understood.
Karoliina Rimhanen, Jyrki Aakkula, Kalle Aro, Pasi Rikkonen
Abstract
Food systems are increasingly exposed to disruptions and shocks, and they are projected to increase in the future. Most recently, the war in Ukraine and Covid-19 pandemic has increased concerns about the ability to secure the availability of food at stable prices. This article presents a food system resilience framework to promote a national foresight system to better prepare for shocks and disruptions. Our study identified four key elements of resilience: system thinking through science and communication; redundancy of activities and networks; diversity of production and partners; and buffering strategies. Three national means to enhance resilience in the Finnish food system included domestic protein crop production, renewable energy production, and job creation measures. Primary production was perceived as the cornerstone for food system resilience, and the shocks and disruptions that it confronts therefore call for a sufficient and diverse domestic production volume, supported by the available domestic renewable energy. A dialogue between different actors in the food system was highlighted to format a situational picture and enable a rapid response. Our study suggests that to a certain point, concentration and interdependence in the food system increase dialogue and cooperation. For critical resources, sufficient reserve stocks buffer disruptions over a short period in the event of unexpected production or market disruptions. Introducing and strengthening the identified resilience elements and means to the food system call for the preparation of a more holistic and coherent food system policy that acknowledges and emphasises resilience alongside efficiency.
Lukasz Aleksandrowicz, Rosemary Green, Edward J. M. Joy, Pete Smith, Andy Haines
Abstract
Food production is a major driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water and land use, and dietary risk factors are contributors to non-communicable diseases. Shifts in dietary patterns can therefore potentially provide benefits for both the environment and health. However, there is uncertainty about the magnitude of these impacts, and the dietary changes necessary to achieve them. We systematically review the evidence on changes in GHG emissions, land use, and water use, from shifting current dietary intakes to environmentally sustainable dietary patterns. We find 14 common sustainable dietary patterns across reviewed studies, with reductions as high as 70–80% of GHG emissions and land use, and 50% of water use (with medians of about 20–30% for these indicators across all studies) possible by adopting sustainable dietary patterns. Reductions in environmental footprints were generally proportional to the magnitude of animal-based food restriction. Dietary shifts also yielded modest benefits in all-cause mortality risk. Our review reveals that environmental and health benefits are possible by shifting current Western diets to a variety of more sustainable dietary patterns.