Foresight Studies

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Abstract Motivation Being able to anticipate (foresight) and thus identify development pathways and make long-term plans is crucial for the transformation of Africa. However, long-term planning was abandoned as many African countries went into crisis, being mostly forced to adopt structural adjustment programmes in the 1980s. Although long-term planning began to make a comeback in the 1990s, the resulting visions have tended to remain that? visions?not fully reflected in policy implementation. Purpose The article explores the many cycles of foresight in Africa to gain insight into how foresight can become an opportunity to generate new development options and strategies for Africa. Various examples of foresight in Africa are examined to tease out the imperatives for African policy-makers to embed foresight into development management. Approach and Methods We review foresight in Africa, starting by mapping foresight exercises in the continent since independence. We identify three categories of foresight exercises: development partner-led, government-led, and civil society-led. Given the involvement of the authors in some of the exercises, assessments are largely derived from personal communications, recollections, and reflections. Findings Four insights emerge. First, foresight exercises have had little impact on leaders and decision-makers, in large part because they have not been intimately engaged in the exercises. Two, foresight narratives tend to be challenging, raising difficult issues that may require substantial and difficult reforms. Faced with everyday challenges of government, leaders have usually chosen to ignore and disbelieve foresight exercises. Three, foresight analysts have not been sufficiently empathetic to the highly constrained systems of public governance and the ministers and civil servants that operate them. Four, futures initiatives can present the factors that may shape the future as overwhelming; and thereby discounting and undervaluing individual and collective agency. Policy implications Exploring the future is not new in Africa. In traditional African societies, the need to explore the future has been recognized, as captured in proverbs and mythologies. The challenge facing African countries today is how to domesticate and democratize ?modern? foresight so it becomes a way of life for decision-makers and institutions.

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Abstract Motivation Foresight is increasingly being institutionalized and used in science, technology and innovation (STI) policy processes around the world. Foresight is a toolbox to help decision-makers generate intelligence about future scientific and technological advances and to frame long-term STI policy goals and rationales. Foresight can be used to inform policy to steer research and innovation (R&I) towards attaining sustainable development goals. Yet, foresight is not institutionalized and used in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at a time when many governments are formulating new STI policies and some of their science granting councils (SGCs) are setting R&I priorities. Purpose This exploratory study is about challenges and opportunities of institutionalizing STI foresight in SSA. It identifies ways of institutionalizing and using STI foresight. Methods and approach A literature review, bibliometric analysis, interviews, an online survey, and focus group discussions were conducted to identify challenges to, and lessons for, institutionalizing STI foresight in SSA. The literature identified good practices for institutionalizing STI foresight in selected developed countries, to draw lessons for SSA. Findings While academic research on STI foresight and related topics is increasing, there is very limited foresight practice in STI policy processes in SSA. This is mainly owing to low awareness of STI foresight, weak technical capacity, and generally a lack of foresight culture in STI policy-making in the region. Policy implications Building capacity within governments and establishing a community of practice in STI foresight may help improve the quality and effectiveness of STI policy in SSA. It may enable institutions such as science granting councils (SGCs) to make informed funding decisions, targeting scarce resources at priority research and innovation. Overall, building STI foresight literacy and skills, as well as establishing designated offices for STI foresight, supported by the knowledge to select and adapt foresight tools, will result in improved STI policy-making in SSA.

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Abstract Motivation Recurring urban flooding in Bengaluru, India, has brought multiple intersecting development challenges to the forefront. While climate change is a catalyst for flooding, rapid urbanisation has aggravated the problem by neglecting its ecological history. Repeated floods have particularly affected migrants living in the slums, further worsening their already vulnerable conditions. Currently, only about 40% of slums are formally recognized by city authorities, leaving most slum dwellers with limited access to public benefits and basic infrastructure. Although the city offers piecemeal solutions, it currently lacks foresight for long-term planning that includes marginalized voices. Purpose We explore the multiple and intertwined development challenges faced by Bengaluru city, attempting to frame them from the perspective of migrant slum dwellers experiencing flooding. We try to bring to the forefront the everyday risks and vulnerabilities of the marginalized populations in Indian cities, which have received limited attention both in research and policy. The results of this exercise are intended to create sustainable collaborative processes to inform future decisions, particularly addressing the problem of urban flooding. Methods and approach Our proposed methodology integrates climate risk assessment?urban flood modelling and exposure mapping of slums across the city?with vulnerability assessments at the household level including analysis of life histories to capture the relative vulnerabilities of slum dwellers and the slums in which they live. Findings We deconstruct urban flooding, particularly from the perspective of migrant slum dwellers to identify some critical challenges, especially that of recognition, to foresight thinking. By incorporating marginalized voices, our methods aim to be inclusive and contextually relevant, while considering intersectional variations among those marginalized. A mixed-methods approach allows climate risk assessment to be augmented by life histories of vulnerable slum populations to collaboratively reimagine a more inclusive future. Policy implications To make policy more inclusive, more participatory processes are needed. The proposed methods will contextualize everyday vulnerabilities and risks of migrant slum dwellers to bring these perspectives into conventional climate risk assessment. Thus, a more inclusive future with lower impacts from urban floods can be envisaged.

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Abstract Motivation In the three years before 2023, we have seen multiple parallel crises?from climate emergencies to economic instability, dramatic increases in costs of living, and political insecurities. Looming larger than the risks is the resultant uncertainty. Development agents, including governments, are historically unprepared for managing converging crisis. When risks are analysed and governed in narrow ways, the historically oppressed and excluded continue to carry the brunt of impact. Purpose This article reflects on the question: How can institutions, including governments, become more anticipatory against this backdrop, to ensure that their policy and investment choices do not leave anyone behind due to lack of preparedness? Approach and methods It draws insights from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Asia and the Pacific's efforts since 2020 to apply more future-fit planning and programming, recognizing that foresight is not an end in itself, but a mechanism for shaping more anticipatory institutions. It is based on qualitative learning synthesized from over three years of work to establish new systems, capabilities and processes for UNDP and its partners to engage in anticipatory risk and planning. Findings Practices rooted in strategic foresight and anticipation can support institutions to incorporate long-term thinking in planning and analysis, but their translation into development decisions and investments requires shifts in perspectives and risk appetite. Historically, strategic foresight has not been mainstreamed within international organizations and governments owing to: failing to embed anticipation into core systems and processes; giving more attention to tools and building skills than to the demand for alternative decision-making models and to risk tolerance; relying overly on external support and static models; insufficiently attending to organizational culture and relational drivers of thinking and action. Policy implications We suggest four interconnected levers to help sustain impact and equity when bringing anticipatory approaches into policy processes: ensure design elasticity to encourage local, context-specific models of anticipatory decision-making; build anticipatory systems as a base to understand future risks, harms, and correlating impacts; interrogate what counts as legitimate and relevant evidence for policy decisions; cultivate imagination as an act of inquiry.

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Abstract Motivation Strategic foresight is gaining traction for anticipating changes in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world?one which will require different mindsets and approaches. Yet international development co-operation practitioners have been slow to adopt foresight. Purpose What promises and pitfalls should development practitioners consider in order to integrate strategic foresight into their work? Methods and approach We review the literature on strategic foresight applied to development. We draw on reflections from the articles included in this special issue. We incorporate the International Development Research Centre's experiences and early insights on the use of foresight for development. Findings Strategic foresight provides tools to anticipate long-term and potentially disruptive change. To apply the approach effectively, organizations need to understand the debates about foresight. But no one size fits all: organizations must identify where and how foresight can best be used; be clear on its purpose, use, and end-users; be sensitive to how foresight intersects with broader calls for decolonizing development and the future; and should adapt methods to different sociocultural contexts. Connecting foresight practitioners and international development actors to explore potential synergies between these two worlds offers opportunities to innovate. Policy implications Traditional, short-term strategic planning, and reactive responses to emerging crises, are increasingly ill-suited to a VUCA world. To be fit for the future, international development actors must consider adding proactive longer-term anticipatory planning?that accommodates more systematic understanding and appreciation of plausible futures?to reactive responses.

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Abstract Motivation Close to a third of the world's population and more than 80% of people living in extreme poverty live in contexts of fragility. With agencies such as the OECD and UNDP conceiving of such places in terms of multiple and serious risks, the framing has come to be one of pathology: fragile contexts are defined by deficits with respect to idealized governance and sustainable development goals. In consequence, development options are locked into managing risks?confining opportunities to develop potential. Purpose Can strategic foresight unlock the development potential of fragile societies? Approach and methods Because there is still little documentation of foresight initiatives in contexts of fragility, the approach here is theoretical and conceptual. We draw on literature from the fields of fragility, foresight, and cognition, as well as insights from expert exchanges and roundtables. Findings It is uncertainty, not risk, that lies at the heart of fragility?an insight that challenges standard decision-making. With the latter being based on analogical reasoning, it cannot be logically applied under conditions of uncertainty. If, instead, we adopt an heuristic for decision-making that acknowledges uncertainty to not only entail risk but also opportunity, strategic foresight is well-placed to help revive development. Policy Implications First, fragility has to be reframed to acknowledge the centrality of uncertainty, not risk, in approaching fragility. Whilst evidence from the past is important, scrutinizing past paradigms and envisioning different futures is crucial. Second, strategic foresight can help uncover fragile societies? capacities and potential. It can help shift from analyses dominated by a concern with lacks and deficits, to analyses which seek relative strengths and opportunities. Just as strong states are not strong in every respect, fragile states may have more to offer than meets the eye. Third, debates need to be more open, less ideologically laden. Dominant thinking on fragility is rife with seemingly imperturbable underpinnings: for example, the mantra that ?without peace there can be no development, and without development there can be no peace.? While such propositions contain some truth, treating them as absolute and universally applicable, limits both thinking and policy options. Strategic foresight is well placed to provide a fresh view on fragility.

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Abstract Motivation Foresight methods are increasingly recognized as essential for decision-making in complex environments, particularly within development and research settings. As foresight methods continue to gain prominence for decision-making, their application in these settings grows. Funders and policy-makers can benefit from the experience of transformative foresight practitioners and researchers who are skilled in designing novel ways to envision alternative and diverse development futures. Purpose The Seeds of Good Anthropocenes (SoGA) initiative has experimented with transformative foresight since its inception in 2016. We position SoGA within the framework of Minkkinen et al. (2019); we present its transformative capacity through participatory visioning; and we explore how foresight methods can shape strategic development options. Approach and methods We draw lessons from how SoGA, used extensively in various contexts around the world, has introduced experimental transformative foresight to deal with diversity and complexity. We describe the transformative foresight processes in detail. Findings SoGA exemplifies how transformative foresight can support policy and change initiatives by providing participants, planners, and decision-makers with opportunities to reinforce the collaborative and transformative objectives of their policy and convening practices. Such engagement not only deepens the strategic impact of policies, it also encourages a more inclusive and participatory approach to policy development, aligning with broader goals for sustainable and impactful change.

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Feeding and nourishing a growing global population in Bangladesh is a major challenge in a changing climate. A multi-level participatory scenario approach with corresponding modeling and decision support tools is developed and applied to support decision-makers in developing scenario-guided enabling policy for food security in the future under climate change. The results presented in this paper show how, under different scenarios, the agri-food system may transform in the next decade as a result of the interaction of intertwined institutional, technological, and market drivers in Bangladesh. For scenario building, the food and agriculture community was brought together with the climate and energy community. We also experimented with different ways to bring voices that are often less included in policymaking, such as poor rural communities and youth. The scenario quantification is performed by MAGNET, a GTAP-based multi-sector and multi-region computable general equilibrium model. The simulation results depict a comprehensive picture of corresponding and varied pressures on agricultural resources and opportunities for economic development and trade in Bangladesh. Finally, we did an ex-ante assessment of the trade-offs and synergies between zero-hunger- and zero-emission-related targets within the Bangladesh Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) under the developed scenarios.

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Scenarios are used to examine systemic change in food systems so policy makers can craft opportunities to improve the management of uncertainty and shape food policy. We present a number of alternative scenarios of the food system for 2035, developed with the Food Standards Agency, the independent government department working to protect public health and consumers’ interest in relation to food for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. To build scenarios we employed morphological analysis; a non-quantified method for modelling multiple scenario variables (food system drivers, projections), simulating their interactions and all possible scenario combinations. A cross-consistency analysis compared all possible scenario combinations to identify which set of driver projections formed a logical (internally consistent) scenario. Recently, we augmented the scenarios to consider the potential impacts and consequences of Brexit and the pandemic on consumer food safety. Outputs illustrate the consequences of extreme impacts emerging from an optimistic (Global Trading) and pessimistic (Resource Tensions) future for the food system. The scenarios establish a context for foresight in decision-making and a framework for evaluating the robustness of policies considering the opportunities and challenges arising from Brexit and a global pandemic.
•Morphological scenarios examine systemic change in food systems to address uncertainty.•Scenario outputs reveal risks and opportunities related to change in food systems.•Building capacity in scenario development helps to future-proof policy approaches.•Scenarios establish links between foresight and the policy process.

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The ability of food systems to feed the world’s population will continue to be constrained in the face of global warming and other global challenges. Often missing from the literature on future food security are different scenarios of population growth. Also, most climate models use given population projections and consider neither major increases in mortality nor rapid declines in fertility. In this paper, we present the current global food system challenge and consider both relatively high and relatively low fertility trajectories and their impacts for food policy and systems. Two futures are proposed. The first is a “stormy future” which is an extension of the “business as usual” scenario. The population would be hit hard by conflict, global warming, and/or other calamities and shocks (e.g., potentially another pandemic). These factors would strain food production and wreak havoc on both human and planetary health. Potential increases in mortality (from war, famine, and/or infectious diseases) cannot be easily modeled because the time, location, and magnitude of such events are unknowable, but a challenged future is foreseen for food security. The second trajectory considered is the “brighter future,” in which there would be increased access to education for girls and to reproductive health services and rapid adoption of the small family norm. World average fertility would decline to 1.6 births per woman by 2040, resulting in a population of 8.4 billion in 2075. This would put less pressure on increasing food production and allow greater scope for preservation of natural ecosystems. These two trajectories demonstrate why alternative population growth scenarios need to be investigated when considering future food system transitions. Demographers need to be involved in teams working on projections of climate and food security.

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The global land base is under increasing pressure to provide food for a growing population. This report describes how increasing population, income, and agricultural productivity may affect global production and consumption of crops and food products by 2050. Results show that in an income-driven food demand scenario, production of world crop calories increases by 47 percent from 2011 to 2050. Demand for food calories and crop calories increases over time in all scenarios, with most of the adjustment through increases in crop yield (intensification). The amount of cropland also increases (extensification) but less on a percentage basis

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This report aims at inspiring strategic thinking and actions to transform agrifood systems towards a sustainable, resilient and inclusive future, by building on both previous reports in the same series as well as on a comprehensive corporate strategic foresight exercise that also nurtured FAO Strategic Framework 2022–31. It analyses major drivers of agrifood systems and explores how their trends could determine alternative futures of agrifood, socioeconomic and environmental systems. The fundamental message of this report is that it is still possible to push agrifood systems along a pattern of sustainability and resilience, if key “triggers” of transformation are properly activated. However, strategic policy options to activate them will have to “outsmart” vested interests, hidden agendas and conflicting objectives, and trade off short-term unsustainable achievements for longer-term sustainability, resilience and inclusivity.

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Agrifood systems are undergoing a transformation with the aim to provide safer, more affordable, and healthier diets for all, produced in a sustainable manner while delivering just and equitable livelihoods: a key to achieving the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. However, this transformation needs to be executed in the global context of major challenges facing the food and agriculture sectors, with drivers such as climate change, population growth, urbanization, and natural resources depletion compounding these challenges.

Food safety is a keystone to agrifood systems and all food safety actors need to keep pace with the ongoing transformation while preparing to navigate the potential threats, disruptions, and challenges that may arise. Foresight in food safety facilitates the proactive identification of drivers and related trends, both within and outside agrifood systems, that have implications for food safety and therefore also for consumer health, the national economy, and international trade. Early identification and evaluation of drivers and trends promote strategic planning and preparedness to take advantage of emerging opportunities and address challenges in food safety.

In this publication, the FAO Food Safety Foresight programme provides an overview of the major global drivers and trends by describing their implications for food safety in particular and for agrifood systems by extrapolation. The various drivers and trends reported include climate change, changing consumer behaviour and preferences, new food sources and production systems, technological advances, microbiome, circular economy, food fraud, among others.

The intended audience for this publication is broad – from the policymakers, academia, food business operators, private sector, to all of us, the consumers.

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Global Food and Nutrition Security
In order to create sustainable food systems, producers, eaters, businesses, governments, and the funding and donor communities must understand how to quantify and understand the real costs of food. Advocates of the economic model known as True Cost Accounting (TCA) recognize that if we do not assess and account for everything that goes into producing and consuming food as well as the impact it has on people and the environment, we risk continuing on a path of damage to the planet and public health.

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Agriculture and food systems are in urgent need of transformation. Various foresight reports unpack food systems’ challenges and propose diverse pathways of change towards sustainability. We interrogate the framings and proposed pathways of eleven selected reports from a food system perspective, with a focus on environmental and climate change implications. We synthesize key drivers of food systems and their impact on food system outcomes. We distil trends and strategies identified across the reports and their scenarios and discuss the diversity of ‘sustainability pathways’ and ‘solution spaces’. There is general agreement that resource protection and adaptation balanced with significant greenhouse gas emission reductions are vital to food system transformation. There is less consensus on the choice of change options and how to address potential trade-offs. While new technologies or consumption changes are described, more attention needs to be paid to overcoming blind spots like implications for equity or changes in governance mechanisms.

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In 2021, those working to build food systems that are just, equitable, and operate within planetary boundaries have our work cut out for us. Climate change, biodiversity loss, and rapidly declining soil
fertility are critically damaging the health of people and the planet, dislocating societies, and threatening food systems around the world. Five years into a global commitment to eliminate hunger by 2030, we have lost significant ground. In 2019, an estimated 690 million people were hungry and upwards of 2 billion lacked regular access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food. This was before COVID-19 added approximately 130 million people to the world’s hungry, pushed uncounted millions more to the brink of hunger, and put one third of food and farming livelihoods at risk.
At the same time, the locus of power in food systems and the broader global economy is shifting at dizzying speed. In 2008, the world’s most powerful corporations drilled oil wells and traded stocks. Twelve years later, the world’s five corporate titans all deal in intangible data and have a market valuation that exceeds the GDP of entire continents. The new biodigital giants are now primed for the next step: unleashing big data and digital DNA into the world's pharmacies, food markets, and financial systems. 'Multi-stakeholderism’ is everywhere as corporations – sensing the social and environmental tipping points ahead – seek to draw governments, scientists and a handful of civil society organizations into an artificial new multilateralism.
Against this backdrop, we consider what food systems could look like by 2045 if (agri)business-as-usual is allowed to run its course. We also imagine what could happen if, instead, the initiative is reclaimed by civil society and social movements – from grassroots organizations to international NGOs,
from farmers’ and fishers’ groups, to cooperatives and unions. We consider what this ‘Long Food Movement’ could achieve if it succeeds in thinking decades ahead, collaborating across sectors, scales, and strategic differences, working with governments and pressuring them to act, and transforming financial flows, governance structures, and food systems from the ground up.

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Scenario exercises can aid decision-making where uncertainty exists. Four future food system scenarios for the UK are explored here for implications on dietary shifts, food waste, biodiversity and food prices.

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The COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose a major shock to both UK and global Food and Nutrition Security (FNS) and the full impacts yet contain many unknowns. This report presents a Scenario Planning exercise that has examined current trends and evaluated plausible, future developments to support policy responses. Allowing that the future is inherently unknowable, using scenarios can help to inform contingency planning. This foresight exercise develops four scenarios for alternative UK agricultural land use, land management and supply chain relationships to better understand the consequences for Food and Nutrition Security and long-term environmental sustainability, both in the UK and overseas.

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This report includes important recommendations and advice for leaders at the most senior levels in countries and international organisations. It is also of direct relevance to decision makers, professionals, actors in the private sector, experts and researchers with interests in food systems and diets. Many of these individuals will be directly concerned with the production, processing, trade, regulation, supply and safety of food. However, others may work in wider areas of policy and business, for example relating to: public health and well-being, education, economic development and investment, urbanisation, globalisation and demography.
This report and executive summary are necessarily technical due to the nature of the
subject matter. However, they set out the practical steps which are essential for food
systems transformation, and the process of change.

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•Food system projections need to consider a range of potential shocks scenarios.•Connectivity in food systems can increase volatility and vulnerability to shocks.•Loss of food system diversity can reduce resilience.•Social media is increasingly important in shaping attitudes/ behaviours towards food.•Increasing automation within food systems may create new sources of shock.
Globalised food supply chains are increasingly susceptible to systemic risks, with natural, social and economic shocks in one region potentially leading to price spikes and supply changes experienced at the global scale. Projections commonly extrapolate from recent histories and adopt a ‘business as usual’ approach that risks failing to take account of shocks or unpredictable events that can have dramatic consequences for the status quo, as seen with the global Covid-19 pandemic. This study used an explorative stakeholder process and shock centred narratives to discuss the potential impact of a diversity of shocks, examining system characteristics and trends that may amplify their impact. Through the development of scenarios, stakeholders revealed concerns about the stability of the food system and the social, economic and environmental consequence of food related shocks. Increasing connectivity served as a mechanism to heighten volatility and vulnerability within all scenarios, with reliance on singular crops and technologies (i.e. low diversity) throughout systems highlighted as another potential source of vulnerability. The growing role of social media in shaping attitudes and behaviours towards food, and the increasing role of automation emerged as contemporary areas of concern, which have thus far been little explored within the literature.

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The availability, access, utilization and stability of food supply over time are the four pillars of food security which support nutrition outcomes. Addressing the issues raised globally around these pillars remains a challenge. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) 2017 report “ The future of food and agriculture: trends and challenges ” outlined the challenges which will have to be addressed in order for sustainable agricultural services to cost-effectively meet the growing food demand of the world population. In this study, we systematically analyzed the future challenges of the agriculture and food systems by focusing on (1) their root causes and trends; and (2) the interlinkages among the solutions proposed to address the challenges using social network analysis tools. It found that, if trends leading to extreme poverty are reversed, several other challenges will also be partially addressed and that climate change has the highest impact on the network of trends. Improving food security would have positive impacts on food access and utilization. The clear outline of the qualitative relationships among challenges presented and insights will help their prioritization by decision makers. However, additional in-depth quantitative analysis is necessary before measures identified to tackle the challenges could be effectively implemented.

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Few things are as interwoven with human existence and culture as
food. At the most basic level, we need it to survive. Beyond sustenance,
food can bring joy and takes a central place in cultures around the
world, often as the centrepiece of celebrations and festivities.
The current food system has supported a fast-growing population and fuelled
economic development and urbanisation. Yet, these productivity gains have come
at a cost, and the model is no longer fit to meet longer term needs. Shifting to a
circular economy for food presents an attractive model with huge economic, health,
and environmental benefits across the food value chain and society more broadly.

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This report addresses a critical issue of our time – how can we exploit new ideas and new technology to nourish and feed a growing world, and do it sustainably?

Working on food systems reform, it is easy to underestimate the speed of change around us. But the reality is that even in the remotest corners of the globe, the drivers of food systems change are making their presence felt with storm-like force. Populations, especially in Africa, are growing and moving. Technology—particularly mobile telephones and off-grid power—is opening up new possibilities for doing things differently to reduce the price of nutritious and safe food. Natural resource depletion and climate change are making life ever more difficult and precarious, especially in agricultural communities. And globalisation and trade mean that the sharing of ideas, products, and even institutions is growing exponentially.

The report sheds light on twelve specific innovations which we judge can reduce the price of nutritious food, address food safety issues, and increase shelf life, in low and middle-income country settings. In all cases, the primary beneficiaries of the deployment of these innovations would be the poor (or at a minimum, those on modest incomes). All twelve innovations are ready to be deployed at scale within the next five years. The report provides numerous concrete examples of how each concept has already been implemented in a relevant setting. We hope that social entrepreneurs, programme implementers and policymakers will take note of these innovations and incorporate them into relevant food systems initiatives going forward.

Equally importantly, given the accelerated rate of innovation development, the report is intended to provide a methodology for screening and prioritising innovations. This methodology is available for others to use, perhaps looking at other important characteristics such as potential for gender transformation or mitigation of the effects of climate change.

Food systems are on the move, and fast. With these insights, GAIN and the Global Knowledge Initiative hope that some of the drivers of change can be harnessed for better, rather than worse, nutritional outcomes.

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This publication is the result of research by the ING Economics Department into promising food tech applications in the European food industry. This research is based on expert interviews, consumer surveys and ING’s sector knowledge. The ING Question of the Day was used for the consumer survey. This representative survey among Dutch consumers is used by way of illustration.

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This report argues for a Common Food Policy for the European Union: a policy setting a direction of travel for the whole food system, bringing together the various sectoral policies that affect food production, processing, distribution, and consumption, and refocusing all actions on the transition to sustainability. It highlights the conflicting objectives of existing policies, and the potential for new synergies to be established. The report maps out a new governance architecture for food systems, and puts forward a concrete vision of the policy reform and realignment that is required in order to deliver sustainable food systems. The Common Food Policy vision draws on the collective intelligence of more than 400 farmers, food entrepreneurs, civil society activists, scientists and policymakers consulted through a three-year process of research and deliberation. In early May, IPES-Food joined with thirty-three other leading campaign groups, farming organizations, and think tanks to call on the next European Commission President to put an EU food policy in place and European Commission Vice-President to be made responsible for ensuring the transition to sustainable food systems.

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Against a backdrop of a rapidly changing food system and a growing population, characterisation of likely future diets in India can help to inform agriculture and health policies. We systematically searched six published literature databases and grey literature repositories up to January 2018 for studies projecting the consumption of foods in India to time points beyond 2018. The 11 identified studies reported on nine foods up to 2050: the available evidence suggests projected increases in per capita consumption of vegetables, fruit and dairy products, and little projected change in cereal (rice and wheat) and pulse consumption. Meat consumption is projected to remain low. Understanding and mitigating the impacts of projected dietary changes in India is important to protect public health and the environment.

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Non-technical summary
The principal policy focus for food has been to increase agricultural productivity and to liberalize markets allowing globalized trade. This focus has led to huge growth in the supply of agricultural produce, more calories becoming available, and price declining. The availability of cheaper calories increasingly underpins diets creating malnourishment through obesity, and global competition incentivizes producers who can produce the most, cheaply, typically with environmental damage. We propose re-focusing, away from yields per unit input, to the food system's overall productivity and efficiency – the number of people that can be fed healthily and sustainably per unit input.
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Technical summary
Since the Second World War, and particularly in recent decades, the over-arching rationale of agricultural and food trade policy has been that by increasing the productivity of agriculture and efficiency of its markets, trade will drive down food prices, drive up choices and food availability: implicitly defining more available and cheaper food as the route to achieving the international public good of global food security. Here we hypothesize that a focus on increasing availability of food, and lowering food prices through focusing on agricultural productivity and trade does reduce prices and increases availability, but also encourages the externalization of costs on health and environment, and instead of providing public goods arguably represents market failure. In other words, a focus on increasing agricultural yields and efficiency decreases the efficiency of the food system through incentivizing externalization of costs. The focus should rather be on the efficiency of the food system to deliver profits, healthy diets and a healthy planet. Reframing the productivity argument towards the efficiency of the food system provides a clear route to reducing market failure, improving public health and sustainability.

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Grain legumes play a key role in smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), in relation to food and nutrition security and income generation. Moreover, because of their N2-fixation capacity, such legumes can also have a positive influence on soil fertility. Notwithstanding many decades of research on the agronomy of grain legumes, their N2-fixation capacity, and their contribution to overall system productivity, several issues remain to be resolved to realize fully the benefits of grain legumes. In this paper we highlight major lessons learnt and expose key knowledge gaps in relation to grain legumes and their contributions to farming system productivity. The symbiosis between legumes and rhizobia forms the basis for its benefits and biological N2-fixation (BNF) relies as much on the legume genotype as on the rhizobial strains. As such, breeding grain legumes for BNF deserves considerably more attention. Even promiscuous varieties usually respond to inoculation, and as African soils contain a huge pool of unexploited biodiversity with potential to contribute elite rhizobial strains, strain selection should go hand-in-hand with legume breeding for N2-fixation. Although inoculated strains can outcompete indigenous strains, our understanding of what constitutes a good competitor is rudimentary, as well as which factors affect the persistence of inoculated rhizobia, which in its turn determines whether a farmer needs to re-inoculate each and every season. Although it is commonly assumed that indigenous rhizobia are better adapted to local conditions than elite strains used in inoculants, there is little evidence that this is the case. The problems of delivering inoculants to smallholders through poorly-developed supply chains in Africa necessitates inoculants based on sterile carriers with long shelf life. Other factors critical for a well-functioning symbiosis are also central to the overall productivity of grain legumes. Good agronomic practices, including the use of phosphorus (P)-containing fertilizer, improve legume yields though responses to inputs are usually very variable. In some situations, a considerable proportion of soils show no response of legumes to applied inputs, often referred to as non-responsive soils. Understanding the causes underlying this phenomenon is limited and hinders the uptake of legume agronomy practices. Grain legumes also contribute to the productivity of farming systems, although such effects are commonly greater in rotational than in intercropping systems. While most cropping systems allow for the integration of legumes, intercropped legumes provide only marginal benefits to associated crops. Important rotational benefits have been shown for most grain legumes though those with the highest N accumulation and lowest N harvest index appear to demonstrate higher residual benefits. N balance estimates often results in contradictory observations, mostly caused by the lack of understanding of belowground contributions of legumes to the N balance. Lastly, the ultimate condition for increased uptake of grain legumes by smallholder farmers lies in the understanding of how legume technologies and management practices can be tailored to the enormous diversity of agroecologies, farming systems, and smallholder farms in SSA. In conclusion, while research on grain legumes has revealed a number of important insights that will guide realization of the full potential of such legumes to the sustainable intensification of smallholder farming systems in SSA, many research challenges remain to be addressed to realize the full potential of BNF in these systems.

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Dairy intensification is a widely used means of achieving food security, improving farmer incomes and enhancing overall economic growth. However, intensification is dependent upon the availability and suitability of natural resources to sustain growth in production. Here, land and water footprints of milk production in three contrasting agro-ecological zones ranging from humid to semi-arid across nine counties of Kenya are quantified. Water and land use footprints across three potential intensification pathways are also outlined and evaluated against the baseline scenario, the currently prevailing practices or the S1 Futures scenario, treated as the benchmark. Intensification pathways focusing on improving livestock breeds, feed provisioning and milk output per cow and distinguished by contrasting management practices perform differentially across the three agro-ecological zones. Total water and land footprints increase for all scenarios relative to the baseline scenario. In particular, all the breed improvement scenarios, have much larger total water footprints than the baseline scenario. Improvement in breed to pure bred cattle across all production systems has the largest total water footprint across all the production systems. Across all the scenarios, the largest reduction in water footprint of milk production (75%) occurs with improvement in breed and feeding practices from two scenarios in the lowlands. Milk production by the cross-bred cattle is most efficient in the lowlands system whereas milk production by the pure breed Ayrshire is most land use efficient in the midlands system. Across the three agroecological zones, improving breeds, feed provisioning and milk production per cow may achieve production intensification but concurrently exacerbates resource limitation. Consequently, the heterogeneity inherent in resource availability across dairy production zones should be considered when developing strategies for increasing dairy production.

Abstract

Construction of plausible scenarios for alternative futures of global food systems requires an understanding of how the past led to the present, and the past's likely relevance to the future. Policy actions affected the past, but are very difficult to foresee. Among those that most shaped global food systems in the last half century are measures that fostered productivity growth, expansion of trade, and the interlinkage of agricultural and environmental policies. Scenarios for global food systems, including those using the quantitative tools of the CGIAR's Global Futures and Strategic Foresight modeling approach, explore alternative assumptions in these three areas, among others. Hindsight can inform foresight by highlighting key elements of the past and forcing transparent examination of whether and how these elements will shape the future.

Abstract

The FABLE Consortium has issued a first report. Over the coming years, members will improve data systems, analytical tools, and analyses of policy options for land-use and food systems. With other parts of the Food and Land-Use Coalition, we work with interested governments to help improve policies and to develop long-term transformation strategies, including low-emission development strategies required under the Paris Agreement. This first report by the FABLE Consortium presents preliminary pathways towards sustainable land-use and food systems prepared by 18 country teams from developed and developing countries, including the European Union. The aim of these pathways is to determine and demonstrate the feasibility of making land-use and food systems sustainable in each country to achieve the SDGs and the objectives of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The report represents the first coordinated effort by researchers from most G20 countries and other nations to chart long-term pathways towards sustainable land-use and food systems. Our preliminary results show that the objectives can be achieved but will require deep transformations in every country.

Abstract

Abstract

The food system was developed around a set of policy drivers to make food cheaper and more available, these included promoting agricultural productivity and global trade to increase the availability of food. However, as has been recognised by a plethora of recent papers and reports, these factors have also led to a food system that is unsustainable through its impacts on human health (particularly the growing obesity epidemic) and the environment (e.g. as a major driver of climate change). The world is changing at an unprecedented rate, and the food system is becoming increasingly ‘just in time’, spatially extended, and dependent on more facilitating sectors (water, land, transport, finance, cyber, etc.). This produces a degree of systemic fragility that drivers (like demand) can interact with events (e.g. a climate impact) to create the opportunity for large‐scale shifts in the way the world works. Given the unsustainability of the food system, and the uncertainty of how it may evolve, scenario analysis can be a useful tool for imagining plausible futures as an aid to unlocking ‘business as unusual’ thinking. Summarising a number of recent processes, I describe scenarios of countries’ food systems shaped by changing patterns of trade and changing dietary patterns.

Abstract

This paper reviews the
opportunities afforded in a world
awash with real-time and near
real-time data to better reflect
and inform the ways in which
both risks and opportunities in
our food systems are managed.
Driven by both traditional and gray
zone conflict across a wide spectrum of
intensity and stresses, 2017 saw one of
the worst years for famine since World
War II, and also one of the largest human
migrations in the history of humanity.
These trends set the stage for novel
approaches to identify opportunities
using familiar and new data and
visualization techniques to illuminate
and scrutinize major vulnerabilities that
cut across many traditional boundaries
toward securing more stable food
systems, and therefore more peaceful,
equitable and prosperous futures for all.

Abstract

2018 Global Nutrition Report

Abstract

This paper defines the research agenda of the SUSFANS project, describes its history and its potential societal impacts. It contributes to balanced and encompassing views on how to strengthen food and nutrition security outcomes in the EU and how to improve the performance of the food system in the EU from the perspective of social, environmental and economic sustainability. The research is led by the notion that improvements in the diets of the European consumer must come from, and be supportive of, sustainable food systems. Its holistic, integrative approach builds a set of metrics, models and foresight tools, useable for navigation on sustainable food and nutrition security. This results in a coherent and supported vision on sustainable food and nutrition security in the EU and globally, and underpins a perspective on how EU policies on farming, fishing, food and nutrition could contribute to that vision with greater efficacy than today.

Abstract

This framework document describes the principles, practices and procedures currently applied by FAO and WHO for the provision of scientific advice through the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives, the Joint FAO/WHO Meetings on Pesticide Residues, the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Meetings on Microbiological Risk Assessment, the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Meetings on Pesticide Specifications, the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Meeting on Nutrition and ad hoc expert consultations and meetings organized in response to specific ad hoc requests or emergency situations. It has been prepared to enhance the transparency of the processes and procedures used by FAO and WHO to deliver scientific advice in food safety and nutrition. The framework continues to be reviewed periodically and amended as appropriate, to take account of new developments and procedures as part of the process to continually improve the provision of scientific advice.

Abstract

Abstract

For centuries bees, busy as they are known to be, have benefited people, plants and the planet. But did you know that bees are not the only ones that sustain life on earth? By carrying pollen from one flower to another, bees, butterflies, birds, bats and other pollinators facilitate and improve food production, thus contributing to food security and nutrition. Pollination also has a positive impact on the environment in general, helping to maintain biodiversity and the vibrant ecosystems upon which agriculture depends. To encourage pollinator-friendly practices in agricultural management and stop the decline of pollinator populations, FAO carries out various activities. Every year on 20 May, World Bee Day offers an opportunity for all of us to pay tribute to pollinators.

Abstract

Given the global relevance of Integrated Food-Energy Systems (IFES), FAO has developed the IFES Analytical Framework; which gives guidance on how to select and assess indicators of IFES sustainability. The Analytical Framework (AF) includes a set of criteria, indicators and measures to help screen IFES projects. The first part of the AF screens IFES projects based on their environmental, social and economic sustainability. The second part of the AF contains a set of leading questions and related features that will help to analyse which factors make IFES replicable. In order to upscale sustainable biomass production, it is important to understand the drivers and the barriers that encourage or limit the long-term adoption of sustainable biomass production practices such as IFES. The question at stake is: Can an IFES that has been proven to be sustainable in one location or community, be taken up in other locations, by other communities, be it in the same region, country or even abroad? One needs to recognize that there are large differences between different IFES, on the one hand, and different geographical and cultural areas where the replication might take place, on the other. Yet we argue that there are some common denominators or features that lie within the project and that create an enabling environment for the uptake of a specific IFES project. These features need to be built into and adapted to the specific context of an IFES when replicated elsewhere.

Abstract

In 2018, we published a report on Sustainable Food Systems, which provides a framework for future activities and partnerships, to focus our efforts in what is an extremely large topic area. We recognise the valuable ongoing work by many organisations in this area and wish to engage where we can add the most value. If you or your organisation is interested in partnering with us in any of the areas discussed in the report, please contact Stephen French.

The sustainability of the food system is critical, to those of us working in the food sector and to every citizen on the planet. We are facing major challenges: increasing pressure on our environmental resources - water, soil, air, and biodiversity, within a context of climate change. We can expect subsequent social and economic changes that will impact the way we live and interact with our environment.

The food system is an integral part of the sustainability picture; the way we produce, transport, manufacture and consume food is both a problem and holds potential (if partial) solutions. IFST, as an organisation with a broad membership spanning the farm to fork continuum, as well as a charitable object to benefit the public, sees a role for it to help support and guide developments in this area, particularly where food science and technology can be leveraged to address the challenges we all face.

To guide us in our efforts, IFST has commissioned a Sustainable Food System framework document, downloadable here. The document outlines the areas of sustainability that are relevant for IFST, where we want to engage in this important, but extremely broad topic. The framework is intended as a beginning rather than a stand-alone piece of work, to guide the development of further, more specific outcomes that IFST can drive or support.

We aim to provide practical support for those looking to implement sustainable practices, and proactive messaging to encourage joined-up, evidence-based policy and strategy development by the UK government and food system stakeholders throughout the farm-to-fork continuum.

We recognise that there are many participants active in this area, with good work underway, and exciting new technologies being developed. IFST is therefore committed to working with interested partners to help speed progress in key areas or to bring focus to needs that may be currently overlooked. We will be speaking out more as we develop our activities; in the meantime, we welcome your comments and encourage you to look for opportunities to work with us to enhance our joint effectiveness.

Abstract

The science, practice, and social movements advancing agroecology offer crucial pathways to transform food systems that enhance the well-being of people and the planet through integrated solutions that address the pressing challenges we face as a global community. This publication highlights the Global Alliance for the Future of Food's collective and individual member efforts to support agroecology as a core solution to the future of food by working together and with others to enhance agroecological science, practice, and movements.

Abstract

As Asia’s food producers aim to meet the demands of a growing population, they are also fighting
against the “four horsemen” of climate change: increasing temperatures, decreasing rainfall, extreme
adverse weather events and the environmental consequences of decades of intensive land use.
While these challenges pose a serious threat to the region’s food supply, they also create opportunities
for innovation—from gene editing and laboratory-grown meat to crop surveillance by drones and
satellites. Food companies, scientists and farmers in Asia are adopting agricultural innovation to
support their markets.
How regional players are innovating to overcome Asia’s challenges holds lessons for global audiences.
To examine their views and approaches, the EIU surveyed agriculture and food executives in China,
India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.

Abstract