Foresight Initiatives
Foresight is increasingly being used by organisations and researchers in the food systems field. Foresight4Food aims to be a hub in this field, particularly by facilitating better coordination among foresight initiatives. The presence of foresight initiatives has been increasing in recent years, and these initiatives often focus on certain aspects of food systems, or specific places.
This page presents an illustrative view of such recent initiatives on foresight in food systems.
| Initiative | Year | Key Reports | Participating Institution | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-Use, and Energy (FABLE) Consortium | 2023 | Pathways to Sustainable Land-Use and Food Systems | The Food and Land Use Coalition (FOLU) | The Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-Use, and Energy (FABLE) Consortium is a collaborative initiative created in 2017. FABLE is a global network of researchers who develop national pathways that are consistent with global sustainability objectives, including the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Climate Agreement targets. FABLE fosters problem-solving and iterative learning across countries, through scenario marathons “Scenathons”, experience sharing on stakeholder engagement, co-development of common open tools, and policy learning between countries facing similar challenges. |
| EAT-Lancet 2.0 Commission | 2022 | Food, Planet, Health: Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems | EAT-Lancet | The EAT-Lancet Commission showed that feeding 10 billion people a healthy diet within safe planetary boundaries by 2050 is both possible and necessary. The adoption of the ‘Planetary Health Diet’ would help avoid severe environmental degradation and prevent approximately 11 million premature adult deaths annually. Building on the findings of the first publication, EAT-Lancet 2.0 will accelerate progress and contribute to the 2030 agenda by including several new elements such as a greater focus on diversity and the adaptation of regional and local diets, strengthened diversity in the composition of the Commission and a new focus on food justice and social food system goals. In addition to the work of the Commission, a 12-month global consultation will be conducted with the aim of increasing local legitimacy, buy-in and adoption of the Commission’s recommendations. |
| Agrimonde-Terra | 2022 | Land Use and Food Security in 2050: a Narrow Road | CIRAD and INRA | The Agrimonde-Terra foresight project explored pathways to feed 9 billion people in a sustainable way in 2050. It highlighted the complex array of interactions between food (in)security, land and its uses, and the environmental impact of human activities. It was run by the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD) and the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE) is the French agricultural research and cooperation organization working for the sustainable development of tropical and Mediterranean regions. INRAE is France’s new , created on January 1, 2020, It was formed by the merger of INRA, the National Institute for Agricultural Research, and IRSTEA, the National Research Institute of Science and Technology for the Environment and Agriculture. |
| FAO Global Perspectives Studies (GPS) | 2022 | The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050 | FAO’s Global Perspectives Studies (GPS) investigate how food and agricultural systems may develop in the long-term future, within the broader economy-wide and social context. GPS nurture debates and policy processes at all levels, aimed at moving food and agriculture towards social, economic and environmental sustainability. Countries, regions and the global community benefit from periodic forward-looking global assessments based on alternative future scenarios for food and agriculture, and thematic studies of global relevance. Most recently the report ‘The future of food and agriculture – Drivers and triggers for transformation’ was published end of 2022. | |
| Independent Science for Development Council (ISDC) | 2023 | Agriculture & Food Systems to 2050 -Global Trends, Challenges and Opportunities | CGIAR | The Independent Science for Development Council (ISDC) is an external, impartial standing panel of experts in science and development subject matters (including food systems innovation matters that extend beyond the agricultural sector) appointed by the System Council and accountable to it, with the responsibility of providing rigorous, independent strategic advice to the System Council, and based on decisions taken by the System Council, the broader CGIAR System as a whole. The ISDC is tasked, among other activities, to conduct foresight work to inform CGIAR’s longer term research strategy and horizon scanning to provide analysis on how emerging trends and developments can be taken into account in CGIAR’s work. |
| CGIAR Initiative on Foresight | 2022 | CGIAR IFPRI | The CGIAR Initiative on Foresight combines state-of-the-art analytics, innovative use of data, and close engagement with national, regional and global partners to offer better insights into alternative transformation pathways that can inform choices and sharpen decision-making today, leading to more productive, sustainable and inclusive food, land and water systems in the future. | |
| CIRAD, INRA | 2018 | Land Use and Food Security in 2050: a Narrow Road | A foresight study on land use of and food security conducted by CIRAD and INRA that combined data analysis with expert workshops. It assessed five dimensions of land use and used hypotheses about future trends to construct 5 scenarios | |
| FAO | 2018 | The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050 | Prepared by the FAO Global Perspectives Studies Team of the Economic and Social Development Department. Provides a quantitative foresight analysis based on three scenarios for linkages between food and agriculture. Quantitative modelling of scenarios was done using FAO GAPS and ENVISAGE. The report provides a very substantial presentation and analysis of key drivers and trends. | |
| Independent Science and Partnership Council (ISPC) | 2018 | Agriculture & Food Systems to 2050 – Global Trends, Challenges and Opportunities | A book contextualizing the role of agricultural research in addressing the 2030 Agenda. It explores the pressures on global food systems between now and 2050. | |
| International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) | 2023 | The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment | The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) is an intergovernmental knowledge and learning centre working on behalf of the people of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). ICIMOD is based in Kathmandu, Nepal and work in and for eight regional member countries – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan. ICIMOD work to improve the lives and livelihoods of men, women, and children of the HKH and protect mountain environments and cultures. The knowledge ICIMOD create and share helps the people of the HKH become more resilient, make the most of new opportunities, and prepare for change. ICIMOD’s work strengthens regional cooperation for conservation and sustainable mountain development. | |
| Africa Growth Initiative | 2011 | Foresight Africa – Top Priorities for the Continent in 2018 | Since 2011, the Brookings Africa Growth Initiative has used the occasion of the new year to assess Africa’s top priorities for the year. The Foresight Africa project is a series of reports, commentaries andts that aim to help policymakers and Africa watchers stay ahead of the trends and developments impacting the continent. | |
| Future Agricultural Consortium | 2022 | Agricultural Policy Research in Africa (APRA) is a six-year research programme of the Future Agricultures Consortium (FAC) which aims to address this question through in-depth, interdisciplinary, comparative research across nine countries. Through this work, APRA is generating high-quality evidence and policy-relevant insights on more inclusive pathways to agricultural commercialisation. With headquarters at the Institute of Development Studies, APRA will run from 2016 to 2022 with the generous support of the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO). | ||
| EU Commission Food 2030 Initiative | 2023 | Future-proofing our food systems through research and innovation | Food 2030 is the EU’s research and innovation policy to transform food systems and ensure everyone has enough affordable, nutritious food to lead a healthy life. The ambition is to achieve a resilient food system that is fit for the future. Food systems need to also deliver co-benefits for people’s health, our climate, planet and communities. Food 2030 provides the policy framework to accelerate this transition within safe planetary boundaries. It is in line with, and supports, the goals of the European Green Deal, Farm to Fork strategy and bioeconomy strategy. | |
| Global Alliance for the Future of Food | 2012 | On True Cost Accounting and the Future of Food | The Global Alliance for the Future of Food is a strategic alliance of philanthropic foundations working together and with others to transform global food systems now and for future generations. We are a unique coalition where individual foundations are able to amplify their work, act together, and take a position on pressing global issues without compromising their own unique missions. | |
| World Economic Forum’s Global Strategic Foresight Community | 2015 | Shaping the Future of Global Food Systems: A Scenarios Analysis | As an extension of its own Strategic Foresight practice, the World Economic Forum has established a new community initiative, the Global Strategic Foresight Community (GSFC). A diverse, multistakeholder group, it brings together eminent and forward-looking thought leaders and senior practitioners from leading public, private and civil society organizations. | |
| European Union Strategic Foresight Network | 2023 | The EU Commission’s Strategic Foresight Network ensures long-term policy coordination between all Directorates-General. The Commission is building close foresight cooperation and alliances with other EU institutions, notably in the context of the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS). It also works with international partners, and develops partnerships that draw on Member States’ public foresight capabilities through the EU-wide Foresight Network. | ||
| EU/DG for R&I | 2018 | Food 2030: Future-proofing our food systems through research and innovation | The publication provides an overview and evidence of how current European research and innovation is contributing to food system transformation. The systemic approach of FOOD 2030 is intended to provide solutions around four key priorities: nutrition, climate, circularity, and innovation. Addressed through investments, research, increased cooperation, it takes a systems approach to food, and focuses on scaling up, innovation, education, and skills. The report provides insight into past and current efforts into building sustainable food systems, and showcases a diverse array of EU achievements in innovation and research. | |
| GFS | 2021 | Horizon Scanning Report: Game changing developments in the context of food security and future research priorities | Global Food Security (GFS) is the UK cross-government programme on food security research. Interdisciplinary and whole system approaches to research on UK and global food systems are cornerstones of the GFS programme. GFS coordinates scientific research supported by its partners across government departments and agencies, the devolved administrations, research councils and Innovate UK. We build on partners’ existing activities, aiming to add value to their current and future investments, and complementing their individual strategies. GFS facilitates new interdisciplinary research to address food system challenges, and provides a platform for working in partnership with a wide variety of stakeholders and users, both internationally and in the UK. The programme also supports effective translation of research for use by food producers and processors, retailers, consumers and government, enabling them to respond to and manage the challenges facing the UK food system as well as related global issues, including the many challenges confronting the developing world in the face of environmental and demographic change. | |
| IIASA Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF) | 2021 | The research focus of IBF is the integrated modeling of natural resources and ecosystems management using IIASA models such as the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) for the development of transformations in food and bio-based sectors that enable satisfying human needs while ensuring the sustainable use of terrestrial and marine environments. | ||
| IIASA Strategic Initiatives Program (SI) | 2021 | The SI Program engages in active horizon scanning to identify global and/or regional initiatives of high strategic impact in order to continuously push the boundaries of systemic analyses in an environment that is relevant to both policy and society at large. | ||
| The World in 2050 (TWI2050) | 2018 | Innovations for Sustainability. Pathways to an efficient and post-pandemic future. Report prepared by The World in 2050 initiative | The World in 2050 (TWI2050) is a global research initiative in support of a successful implementation of the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda, with the goal to provide the fact-based knowledge to support the policy process and implementation of the SDGs. TWI2050 was launched by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), and the Stockholm Resilience Centre (SRC). | |
| OECD-IIASA Strategic Partnership on Systems Approaches | 2017 | The Strategic Partnership on Systems Thinking, Anticipation, and Resilience provides a focus and intellectual leadership for the evolution of the new ideas and approaches so urgently required to improve the prospects for inclusive, stable and sustainable progress. It aims to help OECD Member States, institutions, and other actors to understand the complexity of the issues we face and to manage rising levels of risk and vulnerability under conditions of uncertainty. Following the publication of the first joint report entitled “Systemic Thinking for Policy Making” in February 2020, and in view of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Strategic Partnership seeks to enable policymakers to use the full potential of systems analysis for tackling complex global challenges. Chaired by the former Secretary-General of the Club of Rome and Emeritus Rector of the United Nations University for Peace Martin Lees, the OECD-IIASA Strategic Partnership is steered by a joint Task Force consisting of senior experts from both organizations. |