Foresight Framework
Foresight offers an approach to support transformational change for a more equitable and sustainable global food system. It uses futures thinking and scenario analysis to help diverse food system actors (e.g., rural farmers, food manufacturers, small agri-food businesses, governments) imagine, together, how the future might unfold. Considering future scenarios enables possible risks and vulnerabilities to be understood and mitigated. It also allows for the recognition of opportunities for positive food systems transformation.
The Foresight4Food Initiative has developed a framework and process to guide foresight and scenario analysis for food systems change. The framework, illustrated below, articulates the different dimensions and approaches in foresight and how they relate to each other. It links a participatory process of stakeholder engagement with a strong scientific evidence base and the use of computer-based modelling and visualisation. The approach starts by understanding how food system actors “see” the food system – their actions, values and interests – and their motivation for engaging in foresight. It maps out and examines how social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) factors interact within food systems, and how food systems are influenced by the power dynamics between actors.
Please click on each part of the framework to learn more about each element.
STAKEHOLDER PARTICIPATION
Engage all relevant stakeholders to generate shared understanding and commitment for change
1. Scope the process
2. Map the food system
3. Explore future scenarios
Iterative, monitoring, learning and adaptation
EVIDENCE BASE
Utilize science and evidence to ensure well-informed analysis and stakeholder dialogue
Scope the Process
The process starts with a scoping exercise, defining the food system of interest and its boundaries. This step involves identifying key stakeholder groups, and asking stakeholders questions to understand their perspectives, concerns and interests. Common interests and possible tensions between stakeholders can be identified at this stage.
Map the food system
A food systems model is critical to identify and assess key drivers, trends and uncertainties, to develop alternative future scenarios. This step of the process involves mapping out rich pictures of the food system being assessed, gathering data and creating shared understanding of key elements, relationships and trade-offs in the food system.
Explore Future Scenarios
An exploration of trends and uncertainties enables dialogue between stakeholders about their assumptions on how the future food system may unfold and what this implies for their visions and aspirations. Based on this, future food system scenarios can be developed. This is often the most challenging yet insightful part of the process. It takes various actors ‘outside the box’ to imagine how the future of food systems could be fundamentally different, and with what implications for different food systems stakeholders.
Mobilise for Systems Change
Using both the understanding of the current food system as well as the implications of future scenarios, stakeholders are enabled to better tackle systemic conditions blocking change as well as transformative opportunities. Diverse food system stakeholders work together to explore deep changes based on their interests, urgency created by scenarios, and shared visions for the future.
The food systems model and this foresight approach are then used with the foresight process framework. The foresight process integrates and puts into practice the food systems model and foresight framework.